Saturday, November 14, 2015

At Seeking Alpha: 1,000 Bakken Wells Waiting To Be Fracked -- November 14, 2015

 Updates

November 15, 2015: some things to keep in mind when thinking about these 1,000+ wells waiting to be fracked:
  • they are all in the sweet spots of the Bakken
  • operators have spent 7+ years perfecting completion techniques, resulting in huge 90-day production, and then 1-year production profiles
  • every well in the Bakken -- especially in the sweet spots -- will create a halo effect on neighboring wells 
  • the infrastructure is most robust in the sweet spots of the Bakken
  • 3 - 5 days to frack; once decision is made to frack, oil will moving fairly quickly after that 
In other words, these are going to be the best of the best wells in the Bakken; they are going to increase the production from neighboring wells with no increased associated expense; and, the can be completed in just a few days. 
Original Post
From Seeking Alpha
The number of oil wells in North Dakota that have been drilled but not fracked surpassed 1,000 for the first time in September, as producers wait for prices to recover before turning them on.
As a result, more than 8% of oil wells in North Dakota now are sitting idle, harming the industry's ability to grow production; daily output in the state fell 2% in September to ~1.16M bbl/day.
The backlog is "sending a definite signal to the market that oil and gas operators are not willing to do a lot of drilling or hydraulic fracturing or production at these low prices," says Lynn Helms, director of the state's Department of Mineral Resources, who figures the backlog is not likely to be worked off until next year at least, and only if oil prices rise.
There are so many story lines here, but I've had a busy weekend, so all of this will have to wait.  For more of September, 2015, data, click here.

There are least as many wells in Texas waiting to be fracked, maybe twice that number. It's time for the US government to empty the strategic petroleum reserve and shut the operation down. The SPR is no longer needed.  Actually it looks like the SPR will simply become a "slush fund" of sort as Congress starts selling off the oil to raise money for other projects.

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