California Drought Causing Problems For The Grid -- May 16, 2015

Updates

Later, 11:11 p.m. CT: according to Platts, wholesale power sales from wind generators in California in the first quarter of this year fell an eye-opening 32.7% compared to sales in the first quarter of 2014.
 

Original Post

 
Wow, this is the result of what we used to call PPP -- piss-poor planning -- when I was an employee of the US Department of Defense. Look at this staggering statistic, reported by The Los Angeles Times:

In the 1950s, hydropower supplied almost 60% of the state's electricity. Now, it provides 14% to 19% in a normal year, and even less during a drought — accounting for about 8% of the state's total power last year. Renewable energy, on the other hand, provided more than 20%, according to the California Energy Commission.

Then this:

Making up the difference from less hydropower has not been cheap. The cost to California ratepayers could have been as high as $1.4 billion from 2012 through 2014.

Renewable energy, especially solar, helped make up for about 55% of the reduction in hydroelectricity in 2013 and 2014, state officials said. Natural-gas-fired power made up the rest.

Background:

Shasta Dam, looming more than 600 feet tall and gatekeeper of the largest man-made lake in California, was designed to perform two crucial functions: Store water and generate power.

And for decades, the massive concrete structure has channeled water to cities and farms while generating up to 710 megawatts of hydropower, enough to provide electricity for more than 532,000 homes.

But amid four years of drought, the reservoir is drained to 50% of capacity, cutting the dam's power production by about a third, according to federal reclamation officials.
The story is the same at many dams across California, where electricity production at some is expected to be less than 20% of normal because of low water levels. 

The shortfall shouldn't cause brownouts, officials said, because California relies on dams for power far less than it did in decades past, due in part to the emergence of solar and wind energy.

And herein likes the problem: the tea leaves suggest renewable energy in California has picked the low-hanging fruit; it only gets more difficult from here on out. 

This is the other problem: solar and wind energy cannot be turned on and off when needed / not needed. Only conventional power plants can do that. Again, from The Los Angeles Times:

A reduced supply from dams forces the grid operator to turn to more expensive sources of power, such as natural gas, which also enlarges the state's carbon footprint.

Unlike solar or wind-produced power, which depend on whether the sun comes out or the wind is blowing, hydropower is more controllable, officials said. At reservoirs, officials can turn a valve to increase the water flow whenever more electricity is needed. Energy suppliers rely on hydro as reserve power, and as a quick way to respond to surges in demand for electricity.

In drought years, it's a difficult balancing act because hydropower isn't always an immediate option.

Any thoughts on how the state will try to make up for reduced hydropower? That's a rhetorical question; please don't respond.