Incredible Natural Gas Story -- RBN Energy -- April 29, 2015; Vacancy At The El Rancho Hotel In "Old Williston

Active rigs:

	4/29/2015	04/29/2014	04/29/2013	04/29/2012	04/29/2011
Active Rigs	87	189	186	209	173

RBN Energy: How natural gas production trumped storage withdrawal this past winter. Regular readers have followed the weekly "NG fill rate." RBN Energy discusses it as length today, at the link.

As a result of the record cold winter last year, stockpiles began this winter at a five-year low and at a deficit of about 240 Bcf compared to the previous year.

However, by December, a year-over-year (yoy) surplus in storage began to emerge and continued to grow through the course of the winter. By the time the traditional gas winter withdrawal season ended March 31, inventories were more than 600 Bcf above the previous year, and the yoy surplus has continued to grow since then. Stockpiles as of EIA’s April 17 weekly gas storage update are 1,629 Bcf, which is about 100 Bcf below the five-year average, but a whopping 737 Bcf above year-ago inventory levels.

This is startling given that demand this winter was the second highest in gas market history, 0.8 Bcf/d shy of the record-high demand set last year. How did we get to this point?

Figure 2 [at the link] begins to answer that question. The chart illustrates how supply and demand fundamentals shaped up in the U.S. Lower 48 over the past couple of winters.

Another excellent post by RBN Energy. Again, the post will be archived by the source, at the source.

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GDP

1Q15 GDP will be released today. I believe this is the "initial estimate." It will be revised at least twice more before "it" becomes official. I could be wrong on that, but it seems like I've read that somewhere else before.

Be that as it may, "GDPNow" forecast 0.1% growth. It will be interesting to see how accurate their new tool is.

I got a kick out of early morning talk shows, talking about the 1Q15 GDP.  For newbies, a growth of 0.1% in a nation which should be in the middle of a gangbuster economy is pathetic. Already the spin is beginning. They are going to blame the poor growth on a) winter; and, b) work stoppage at west coast ports. Winter, huh? I thought global warming would have tempered things by now. Whatever.

So, we will wait for the report and the spin.

The following is no spin. I think it's been five years since I've seen this, "vacancy" at the El Rancho on the north side of "old Williston."

The photo was taken about 8:30 p.m., Tuesday, April 28, 2015.