Natural Gas Fill Rate: 92 -- September 13, 2014; Cushing Hub Getting Bigger

On July 31, 2014, I posted:

It appears, that in round numbers, the industry needs to inject 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage every week to meet this winter's expected demand. Don sent me the number for the most recent week: 88. That's the net change: previous week plus newly injected minus withdrawal.

Last week's number was 79.

This week's number was 92.  And winter started early across the nation. See the graphic at this link (scroll to the bottom when you get to the link). It may get worse: at this weather update one can see where the natural gas is going to be going in a few days -- at the video, it's about seven minutes into the summary.

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Cushing Hub Is Getting Bigger

Tulsa World is reporting:

The Cushing interchange, already one of the world’s most important crude oil hubs, is going to get even bigger.

One new pipeline is in operation, another almost completed and yet one more major project revealed this month. Tulsa-based NGL Energy Partners announced the Grand Mesa Pipeline, a joint venture with Rimrock Midstream LLC.

The Grand Mesa, which will be open to oil producer commitments starting next week, will be a 550-mile system from Weld County, Colorado, to the Cushing hub. Once completed, the pipeline could move more than 130,000 barrels per day from production in the Denver-Julesberg Basin.

For newbies, this will give you some idea of how huge the Bakken is. Note the emphasis in this article on the Denver-Julesberg Basin. This new pipeline "could move more than 130,000 barrels per day from production in the Denver-Julesberg Basin."

Compared to the Bakken, how big is the Denver-Julesberg Basin? The answer was provided by the EOG CEO earlier this month:

• 95% of all horizontal oil produced in the US comes from just six plays, in order:
• Eagle Ford: 39%
• Bakken: 30%
• Permian Basin: 15%
• Midcontinent plays: 5%
• Denver-Julesburg Basin: 4%
• Powder River Basin: 2%

And, so this one new pipeline could move more than 130,000 barrels per day from the D-J Basin. Bill Thomas pretty much put the Bakken and the Eagle Ford into perspective. 

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When Will US Quit Importing Saudi Oil?

My only unknown: the "mix" or "type of oil" coming from Saudi. I know a fair amount of Saudi oil is light. I don't know if all of it is light.

From an earlier post:

The U.S. imported 878,000 barrels of Saudi crude a day in the first four weeks of August, the least since 2009.

To put that in perspective, compare that number (878,000 bopd) with the historical trend, around 1.5 million bopd.

The tsunami of oil coming out of the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and the Permian will easily grow by another 878,000 bopd by this time next year. I would assume that most of the Saudi oil coming to the US today, tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow was contracted for many months ago. I would also bet that as each day goes by, fewer US contracts for Saudi oil are being written, unless of course, a certain type of oil is needed that Saudi has.  Like I said, I don't know.

From wiki:

The third most commonly quoted benchmark is Dubai Crude, which is 31° API. This is considered light by Arabian standards but would not be considered light if produced in the U.S. The largest oil field in the world, Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field, produces light crude oils ranging from 33° API to 40° API.

From ndoil.org:

Bakken crude oil gravity ranges from 36 to 44 degrees API. The quality of this oil is excellent, almost identical to WTI. The benchmark crude oil is West Texas Intermediate, which is 40 degrees API sweet crude. It is the benchmark because it requires the least amount of processing in a modern refinery to make the most valuable products, unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel.

It certainly appears Bakken crude is pretty much like Saudi crude, at least with regard to "degrees API."

We could certainly see "zero" Saudi imports a year from now.

If I remember that could be worthy of a poll early next year.