Friday, March 14, 2014

Question of the day: why is there a switch to turn off transponders in commercial aircraft? I update thoughts on the Malaysia airline story at this bottom of this post. [Later: a reader wrote to answer that "rhetorical" question -- why is there a switch to turn off transponders in commercial aircraft? The writer's answer: "As a private pilot, I can answer your rhetorical question about why there is a switch on transponders. Occasionally they fail; and when they do, they can send confusing information to controllers. In my modest 1500 hours flying time, I have been requested to turn off my transponder twice."]


Active rigs:

	3/14/2014	03/14/2013	03/14/2012	03/14/2011	03/14/2010
Active Rigs	190	187	203	174	104

RBN Energy: drought boosting gas power burn in California? Natural gas accounts for 71% of California's summer electricity demand; hydro, 15%. Wind? Solar? 2.3 and 1.9% after decades of pouring money into the sectors.

Despite some recent rain and snow, California continues to experience a historic drought that will further reduce the state’s hydroelectric output and again increase demand for natural gas for power generation. But the drought is only part of the story. California needs to replace the megawatts once provided by the now-shuttered San Onofre nuclear station, and specifically needs flexible gas-fired capacity to back up the intermittent production from the state’s new solar facilities and wind farms. The resulting gas shortages have led to generators being exposed to massive swings in gas prices this winter and facing higher prices this summer. Today we examine the growing connection between gas use and rain, snow, sun and wind in the Golden State.

Hydropower is big on the West Coast. In Part 1 of our series, Who Stopped the Rain?, we saw how natural gas plays second fiddle to hydro in the Pacific Northwest, especially in Oregon and Washington State, where a series of federally owned dams along the Columbia and Snake rivers generate more than half of the states’ annual electricity needs. That episode also discussed how, in relatively dry years the use of gas-fired power plants increases to fill the gap left by water-starved hydro plants.  In Part 2, we looked at other forces driving increased gas use in the Pacific Northwest, including the development of new gas-fired power plants to replace coal units being taken offline and to keep pace with load growth. We also explored the new pipeline infrastructure being developed to move more gas from western Canada and the US Rockies to the increasingly gas-dependent region. Now we take a look at California.

Meantime, Southern California’s gas-delivery infrastructure has been showing signs of strain this winter. Due to unusually cold weather (cold for Los Angeles, that is) and resulting shortfalls in gas supplies in early December, SoCalGas twice asked its customers to reduce their gas use. And on February 6, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which oversees the state’s electric grid, issued a rare, statewide “Flex Alert”—this time urging electricity conservation due to “a shortage of natural gas triggered by extreme cold weather in much of the United States and Canada.” CAISO said the shortage was “impacting fuel supplies to southern California power plants and reducing electricity generation” in the gas-dependent region. According to reports filed by generators with the FERC in early March requesting waivers to recover their costs (see FERC Docket ER14-1428), California generators have been exposed to massive swings in gas prices and to the need to procure gas on short notice, without any assurance that they will be paid by CAISO for their actual costs of production.

These shortages of gas for power generation in the winter months when California demand is normally lower do not portend well for the coming summer season. With the drought reducing hydro output and demand for gas up to help fill the SONGS gap California gas supplies are expected to remain tight. Forward prices for the summer strip (average of April through October) at Pacific Gas & Electric City Gates have traded at more than $0.50 /MMBtu above the CME NYMEX Henry Hub, LA benchmark this month (March), double the basis seen a year ago in 2013.

In sum, the interplay between hydro and gas in California is a long-running phenomenon that is becoming more complex due to the continuing drought, the new gas-fired generation that has been coming online, and gas’s increasing role as a “balancer” to offset the variable output of solar and wind projects. Add to that the need to beef up some elements of southern California’s gas pipeline infrastructure and the sheer size of California’s gas market and you get a situation worth following. We’ll do that as those pipeline plans unfold.

The Wall Street Journal

Radar suggests plane's change in direction was "deliberate."

Obama's support for Ukraine: military rations, only. No guns, no ammunition. Oh, yes, he will tell John Kerry to bore the Russians to tears with more speeches. Putin is not concerned about economic sanctions.

So, in North Dakota, ThinkProgress is concerned about rogue radioactive waste contractors, but the facts are the federal government has been much more slow to respond to much bigger problems.

Retail sales rebound after tough winter caused by global warming.

It looks like the Obama administration will once again extend deadline for ObamaCare. My hunch is that "open season" in health care insurance will soon end. People will not wait until they have a medical condition before they sign up.

Target, the retail store, was warned about the breach before data was stolen; failed to act. Target is still my favorite big box store, but I haven't used a credit card in the store since the breach, and I seldom visit any more. I've saved a lot of money. [Yahoo!Finance reminds us how incredibly badly the retail giant reacted to the warning, and how incredibly badly it "took care of its loyal customers."]

VW's bid to grow in US is hurt by UAW fight in Tennessee. It appears the union has not given up. the union wants the vote thrown out by the NLRB. Meanwhile, Porsche's 2013 profit nearly matched VW's. What recession? The gap between the haves and the have-nots continues to widen.

GE to offer credit card.

The Los Angeles Times

At leas the LA Times is willing to print the headline: experts lean toward foul play in the missing Malaysian airplane.

Thank goodness! Kerry and Russians launch new talks on Ukraine.

Duke porn star. Interesting story. I agree with Camille Paglia on this one.