That look-back provided only the IPs if the wells were drilled and producing.
I've been looking at the total production to date of each of these wells. It will take me awhile to get through them all, but the following data is about half the wells. Most of these wells were permitted in 2010 and drilled in 2010, but some were drilled/completed in 2011, and some even as recently as 2012.
The permits for ALL of 2010: #18571 - #20246.
These wells are permits #18571 through #19370: 800 permits/wells.
Of those 800 wells, I have tried to remove all the non-Bakken wells; that leaves 713 wells.
Of these 713:
- 55: PNC
- 8: confidential
- 5: Expired permits
- 3: Dry
- 3: location only
- 1: inactive
- 1: drl
Production per well ranged from a low of 19,000 bbls (to date) to 444,000 bbls.
Remember: these are wells that were for the most part drilled and completed in 2010. None are older than 2010. Some, very few, were drilled/completed in 2012.
Total production by well:
- 50,000 bbls or less: 30 wells
- 51,000 bbls to 99,000 bbls: 137 wells
- 100,000 bbls to 149,000 bbls: 190 wells
- 150,000 bbls to 199,000 bbls: 151 wells
- 200,000 bbls to 249,000 bbls: 65 wells
- 250,000 bbls to 299,000 bbls: 30 wells
- 300,000 bbls to 349,000 bbls: 20 wells
- 350,000 bbls to 399,000 bbls: 7 wells
- Greater than 400,000 bbls to date: 7 wells
In the old days, one might assume a well that had produced 100,000 bbls "had paid for itself at the wellhead." Maybe that number is now closer to 150,000 or maybe more; some wells have gotten very expensive.
But the data is what it is. It gives me an idea of what's going on. Again, a very, very unscientific look.
Most of the non-Bakken wells were Madison wells; some Red River wells.
That is great that you are spending the time and energy to compile this information. I am sure that you are aware there is a growing chorus of voices that is focusing on the rate of decline/depletion of these shale wells. A quick calculation - using your data - indicates that 43% of these wells have already produced 250,000 bbl or more. At a rough pricing of $100/bbl, these wells would have thrown off a minimum 25 million gross revenue.
ReplyDeleteAs anyone following these developments knows, the newer, more effective completion/stimulation techniques should produce even greater returns. As the downspacing continues (Noble is planning on either 16 or 32 wells on a 40 sq. acre location in the Niobrara), along with the inevitable re-entry into the earlier wells to 'bring them up to speed', the dreaded Red Queen may be held off for quite some time.
I thank you for all your great work.
Thank you for your kind comments. Mike Filloon (contributor to "Seeking Alpha" has done much better work than I have and he is seeing the very same thing. Harold Hamm estimates the "average" EUR (estimated ultimate recovery for Bakken wells will be 603,000 bbls.
DeleteI have alluded to other developments that might actually "alter" the decline rate for the better.
It should be noted that after these wells have produced their first 150,000 to 250,000 bbls, the monthly production is generally very low, but it goes on and on and on, and maintaining a well is not particularly expensive, compared to the initial cost. In addition, all these wells hold the drilling (or the lease) by production, meaning the operator can put in another well in the same drilling unit without incurring another $2,000/acre up-front fee (for a 1280-acre drilling unit that equates to a savings of over $2.5 million/well, not trivial (of course, assuming I did the math correctly, something I often get wrong).