Initial Claims At Lowest Number Since Early May -- Is That, Like, Three Weeks Ago? Since Early May; As Bad As The Early Days Of The 2007 - 2009 Recession; Number Receiving Benefits Increased After Many Weeks Of Falling

"Job watch" numbers have lost all credibility (see earlier posts) but for what they are worth, here they are:

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 334,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

That was the smallest number of first-time applications since early May and near levels last seen the early days of the 2007-09 recession.

And, of course, next week these numbers, by then long forgotten, will be revised.

Lost in translation:

" Moreover, it has been difficult to discern any increase in layoffs due to Washington's embrace of harsher fiscal austerity this year."  Translation: the sequester had no effect on layoffs despite administration doing all it could to make the sequester as painful as possible.

After weeks of falling:

The claims report showed the number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid rose 2,000 to 2.97 million in the week ended June 1.

That bit of trivia was buried at the end of the article. 

What do analysts think about the job market? They thought first time claims would decrease by 1,000. Very pessimistic that group. As noted above, the decline was 12X that number. 12 times.

And finally,

The four-week moving average for new claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, dropped 7,250 to 345,250.

That four-week moving average has changed little in the past two years.

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A Note To The Granddaughters

It was a beautiful day in the Boston area yesterday.  Before they leave Massachusetts for ever and ever, for Texas, the granddaughters have a number of "to-do" items. One of them was to visit Walden Pond one more time. The younger daughter stayed home to work on her "Happy Father's Day" artwork.

The older one and I went to Walden Pond; it's a 20-minute drive by automobile. Because it was an early release day from school, we got there early and spent a couple of hours walking around the pond.

What a great day. She is incredibly observant. The highlight of her nature observations was seeing a crayfish. From wiki:

Crayfish – also called crawfish or crawdads – are freshwater crustaceans resembling small lobsters, to which they are related. They breathe through feather-like gills and are found in bodies of water that do not freeze to the bottom. They are mostly found in brooks and streams where there is fresh water running, and which have shelter against predators. Most crayfish cannot tolerate polluted water. Crayfish feed on living and dead animals and plants.

I did not know that crayfish were that sensitive to polluted water. It was notable that Walden Pond is incredibly clear: one can see the bottom of the pond several feet out before it gets incredibly deep.

The pond is huge, for a pond, but incredibly small for a named body of water that is so small. It would only take about 40 minutes to walk around the entire pond, and at any point, one can easily see the other side. It appears swimmers enjoy the challenge of swimming across this body of water, some with wet suits; some without. It had at least four coves, all named: Thoreau's Cove, of course; Long Cove, Little Cove, and maybe, Fort Cove (I forget the name of that one).

For being so near Boston, I am impressed that the pond is so accessible, and even more impressed there seem to be so few rules. Allowed: picnics; sunbathing on the fine sandy beach; swimming without a lifeguard presence; boating (no engines, obviously); fishing; wading; open till dark. Free. $5 parking fee.

We walked up to Henry D. Thoreau's homesite where our granddaughter placed a small stone along with all the others that had been placed there over the years. No graffiti but there were short excerpts from Thoreau's books or something similar written on small stones with indelible ink (think "Sharpies").

As noted above, the highlight of the day was seeing the crayfish, which we caught in a small ziplock bag, filmed, and then placed back in the water. The 10-year-old marine biologist told me it was probably a female crayfish because it was brown; she told me male crayfish were bright red. She referred to the crayfish we caught as a "she" throughout our visit.

I took out the map we had of Walden Pond. Arianna immediately noted that it was a contour map; it has contour lines on it, but the intervals were not marked in feet. We actually estimated that the intervals were 10 feet based on the small hill we stood on above the pond. Later, we checked the legend, and there it was: the contour intervals were 10 feet. We were impressed with ourselves. Arianna listed the reasons why reading a map was still important even though we now had GPS devices.

We looked the waves on the pond, and I mentioned waves and atoms. She then mentioned "particles" and we used the opportunity to discuss the debate about atomic particles and their wave-particle properties. After years of reading about quantum mechanics, I finally understood what physicists were saying when they talked of the "collapse" of the wave function. Arianna told me that when the ripple of the wave finally fades away, a particle is left. Okay. Pretty good. Like the small stone we skipped on the pond.

Sitting down to enjoy a small picnic, she became quite upset when she noted ants crawling on her tennis shoes. I wondered how she could become a marine biologist if ants bothered her. She reminded me that there are no ants in the ocean. Okay. She says ants bother her more than spiders, and spiders bother her a lot. Sharks do not bother her.

It's sad to think we will probably never see Walden Pond again.

Arianna's Crayfish