24 Billion Bbls of Recoverable Oil; EIA Estimate of US Crude Oil Proved Reserves: 25 Billion Bbls

I have a new tag / label at the bottom of the blog, "24billion" to find those posts in which "24 billion bbls of recoverable oil in the Bakken/Three Forks" has been mentioned or referenced.

For newbies, you may want to read some of those posts before reading further. Bottom line: "official" estimates for likely recoverable oil in the Bakken/Three Forks is about 3 - 4 billion bbls. Some folks now suggest 24 billion bbls of oil is recoverable from the Bakken. (That number can be arrived at with very little math using the original Leigh Price paper. You can do that at home with paper and pencil.)

That "24 billion bbls" is a very interesting number.

Earlier this week, August 1, 2012, the EIA published its annual summary of proved crude oil and natural gas reserves in the United States as of December 31, 2010.

Proved reserves of U.S. oil and natural gas in 2010 rose by the highest amounts ever recorded since the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) began publishing proved reserves estimates in 1977.

Net additions to proved reserves of crude oil plus lease condensate in 2010 totaled 2.9 billion barrels, surpassing the previous high of 1.8 billion barrels added in 2009 by 63 percent.

Crude oil plus lease condensate reserves at end of December, 2010: 25.2 billion bbls. 

Proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate rose 13 percent to 25.2 billion barrels in 2010, marking the largest annual increase since 1977 and the highest total level since 1991. Proved reserves increased in each of the five largest crude oil and lease condensate areas (Texas, the Gulf of Mexico Federal Offshore, Alaska, California, and North Dakota) between 2009 and 2010. Of these, Texas had the largest increase, 860 million barrels (16 percent), resulting mostly from ongoing development in the Permian and Western Gulf Basins in the western and south-central portions of the state. North Dakota reported the second largest increase, 829 million barrels (78 percent), driven by development activity in the Williston Basin. Collectively, North Dakota and Texas accounted for nearly 60 percent of the net increase in total U.S. proved reserves in 2010.

We are comparing apples to oranges at this point, but very interesting data points: the EIA says the entire US has 25.2 billion bbls proved reserves of crude oil plus lease condensate. Some say the Bakken/Three Forks holds 24 billion bbls of recoverable oil.

Regardless of the numbers, the narrative is very, very interesting. Remember, that was 2010: the Bakken was going strong, but 2011 was an even bigger year.