The oil companies know it, and some analysts know it, but I think the numbers are going to surprise a lot of folks when Bakken 3Q11 production is reported. Two things: the horrible weather this past winter and spring hindered well completions; that alone will not be a problem for 3Q11.
But, in addition, many companies are adding dedicated frack crews to their fracking schedule. It only takes a few days to frack a well, and I bet these fracking crews are moving from well to well, like locusts moving through a grain field. Lousy analogy, I know, 'cause everybody loves frack crews.
Daily activity reporting has not shown that yet; fifty percent of wells coming off confidential list are being reported as DRL status (not completed).
i believbe a 28-36 stage Fracc job takes 5 days, set up time, fracc, take down time. .. please correct me if i am wrong..
ReplyDeleteThat's about right. Three frac jobs for every well drilled in terms of time.
ReplyDeleteI have always considered the frac job as the most vital part of the drill. It's the icing on the cake and it better be done with quality using quality materials (frac sand, etc.). This procedure can make or break the potential production on any well. We have minerals in both Williams County, ND and Roosevelt Coutny, MT and if or when we get drilled on, this frac procedure will be the highlight of my interest.
ReplyDeleteYou are absolutely correct. Guiding the well bore through the narrow seam has to be quite a trick, but the fracking will make or break a well. Some fracturing is natural, as seen in the Red Wing field, but generally not.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, of all the technology out there, it appears the best type of fracking is still being studied.
Well if the ratio of frac time to drilling to the point of completion time is 1:3 then it would seem that the basin needs frac system capacity equal to or greater than 1/3 of the drilling rig count or there will be a delay in completions compared to what is theoretically possible. I dont know but I dont believe there are anywhere near this number of frac systems deployed in the basin and since not all frac systems are the same, then wait is further delayed. I assume that the frac providers are going all in to get more capacity in place to make up for the shortfall. Since there are several different frac technologies,and some just being developed, the frac picture is complicated. The good news is that the oil is not going anywhere but the delay does impact cash flow.
ReplyDeleteYes. I never know if "anonymous" is new to the site, or a long-time follower.
ReplyDeleteI've talked about this for some time now. I think I was one of the first, if not the first, to write about the backlog. No one else to my knowledge is publicly tracking it. Today's report was one of the worst: two of twelve wells completed, and my hunch is they waited to be fracked also.
You are so correct: this is a major drag on cash flow. I suppose the good news is that fracking is now accounting for about half the cost of the well, so one is not letting the whole cost of the well sit idly by until it is completed.
Having said that, even without fracking, wells produce oil, some more than others. Some wells never need to be stimulated; natural fracturing has already taken place, which occurred in the Red Wing field and which I have blogged about.
I forget who it was (WLL, OAS, someone else) that said he felt their company would close the backlog by late November. Maybe, but I'm beginning to doubt it. The numbers just don't add up. And when I see another ten wells today waiting to be fracked, well .... need I say more?
The choke point, obviously, is skilled manpower, but trucks and sand are also in high demand. Water is not an issue in Nort Dakota, although access to water might be. I've discussed that elsewhere.
With regard to manpower, it is all about housing. Whether there are adequate skilled frackers nationwide, I don't know. I do know that the Marcellus, the Utica, and the Eagle Ford will compete for frackers, further complicating the issue.