How Bad Is It? Well, Pretty Bad South Of The Mason-Dixon Line -- May 11, 2021

Updates

Later, 12:44 p.m. CT: in real time, technically it is true -- there are no lines for gasoline in Southern Pines, NC -- that's because the stations are out of gasoline. 

Later, 12:36 p.m. CT: in real time, from Platts, "the closure could be more significant than the Suez Canal shutdown; incident highlights range of risks to energy supply."

• like shutting down the DAPL
• like shutting down the Keystone XL
• like shutting down Line 5

Later, 12:18 p.m. CT: in real time, 

"Fuel on the Colonial system will take fifteen days to hit New York area. Gasoline shortages are already occurring from US south to East Coast. Once the pipeline's sprawling system is back in full operation, it will take nearly fifteen days (two weeks) to move gasoline sitting in Houston."

Keep your gas tanks full. Even if  you don't plan to drive.

It's a national emergency -- President Biden. The president has convened a commission to look into this. Acted within hours to set up that bipartisan commission. Never let a crisis go to waste. It appears the commission's main task is to "continually assess the impact of the ongoing shutdown."

Later, 12:13 p.m. CT: link here.

• by Monday (that was yesterday), gasoline demand rose 40.1% among just five states: GA, FL, SC, NC, and VA.

Original Post

Tweets from the trenches:

• demand on East Coast surging -- Monday, May 10, 2021 -- hoarding, panic buying;
• gas stations running out of gasoline -- Monday, May 10, 2021 -- hoarding, panic buying;

Rigzone: East Coast motorists finding offline (empty) fuel pumps.  

From Virginia to Florida and Alabama, fuel stations are reporting that they’ve sold out of gasoline as supplies in the region dwindle and panic buying sets in. The White House said it was aware of shortages in the Southeast of the country and was trying to alleviate the problem.

Four days into the crisis, Colonial Pipeline Co. has only managed to manually operate a small segment of the pipeline -- as a stopgap measure -- and doesn’t expect to be able to substantially restore service before the weekend. The risk is that by that point drivers or airlines may already be suffering severe fuel shortages, while refineries on the Gulf coast could be forced to idle operations because they have nowhere to put their product.

U.S. average retail gasoline prices have risen to their highest since late 2014 due to the disruption, almost touching $3 per gallon. That could add to broader inflationary pressures as commodity prices from timber to copper also surge.

The Colonial pipeline is the most important conduit to distribute gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel in the U.S., moving the products from the refiners based on the Gulf coast into urban areas from Atlanta to New York and beyond. Each day, it ships about 2.5 million barrels -- more than the entire oil consumption of Germany -- connecting more than 20 refineries with about 200 distribution centers.

The vital conduit has been shut down since late Friday. Without the Colonial pipeline, many cities and airports must seek alternative supplies, either fuel imported by tanker or, if landlocked, relying on trucks.

In the first sign of the potential disruption to air travel, American Airlines Group Inc. said it was adjusting two long-haul routes that originate in Charlotte, North Caroline, to add fuel stops. Flights to Hawaii will call in at Dallas-Forth Worth airport, while London-bound aircraft will make a stop in Boston.

Airlines flying out of Philadelphia International Airport are burning through jet-fuel reserves and the airport has enough to last “a couple of weeks,’ a spokeswoman said.

The U.S. East Coast is losing around 1.2 million barrels a day of gasoline supply due to the disruption.