Sunday, November 22, 2020

Quick: How Many Transistors On The New Apple M1 Chip In The New Laptops Apple Is Now Shipping? Where Does Apple Go Next? Does Apple Have A New Revenue Stream? Think Tesla, But Not That Thought. Another Thought -- November 22, 2020

Locator: 00001C.

Apple silicon. Link here.

Updates

November 13, 2023:

August 27, 2023: update -- GPUs

July 28, 2023: update -- wiki will update this chart within six months -- INTC getting a lot of press right now, but INTC can only do so much through cost-cutting and resting on laurels. The cloud-- where INTC seems to be concentrating right now (Ericsson, 5G) -- has a lot of players: GOOG, AMAZON, AAPL, MSFT, just to name a few . Meanwhile, INTC struggles with 10nm chips while AAPL has moved on to 2nm.

July 3, 2023: NVDA -- most valuable semiconductor company by market cap.

July 13, 2023: Nvidia and AMD.

June 13, 2023: updating the jargon -- CPUs, GPUs, cores.

June 10, 2023: link here and here. Generative AI. Apple's R1.

June 7, 2023: Apple Silicon.

May 31, 2023: INTC -- in a world of hurt. Huge front page story in The WSJ

May 23, 2023: AAPL extends chip-supply agreement with Broadcom.

May 16, 2023: NVDA's market cap outpaces BRK's.

May 15, 2023: AAPL, TSM, 3nm, Russel 2000.

May 7, 2023: follow-up from BRK's annual meeting.

April 23, 2023: chipmaker ARM to make its own semiconductors.

April 21, 2023: INTC axes state-of-the-art, game-changing chip series

March 22, 2023: TSMC -- a no-brainer, Motley Fool.

March 15, 2023: INTC delays product(s), again. Link here.

March 10, 2023: update, link here.

March 2, 2023: Hedge Fund billionaire has taken a passive position in AMD.

February 8, 2023: INTC making a major mistake -- Motley Fool.

January 27, 2023: Biden administration bet on the wrong horse, but that's fine.

January 21, 2023: can Intel come back?

January 19, 2023: is anyone paying attention?

December 1, 2022: transistors on a chip, updated.

November 15, 2022: three to consider -- TSM, AVGO, and SWKS.

November 14, 2022: Warren Buffett -- BRK -- buys TSM for the first time, 3Q22

November 10, 2022: Intel (INTC) laying off 20% of workforce.

October 23, 2022: Biden's Chinese semiconductor ban. China's "911."

October 17, 2022: Peter Zeihan.

September 14, 2022: M3 confirmed.

August 18, 2022: 3nm M2 sooner than expected.

August 14, 2022: for investors.

July 17, 2022: three semiconductors that could go parabolic

July 15, 2022: the new M2 MacBook Air is available starting this date; opens to incredible reviews. Some call it the "perfect" Mac. 

July 15, 2022: Nancy Pelosi "reveal": a new multi-million dollar investment in Nvidia.

June 28, 2022: transistors on a chip. Apple still #1. 

June 28, 2022: Qualcomm and TSM update.

May 28, 2022: Apple to move directly to 3nm in next iPhone iteration

April 25, 2022: EUV lithography.

April 16, 2022: feature story.

March 12, 2022: Moore's Law broken?

March 11, 2022: Apple, TSMC update

December 24, 2021: AMD -- all roads lead to TSMC. AMD dependend on TSMC foundries

December 24, 2021: TSMC --

  • to begin 3nm chip production in 2022; could "beat" Apple; link here.

December 4, 2021: update, briefly.

December 3, 2021: the M3, the M1, the Apple Mini and AWS.

December 2, 2021: TSMC getting ready to produce the 3-nm chip.

October 20, 2021; Transistors on a chip, wiki has just update the table at this site;

  • 2020, Apple M1: Apple has record with 16 billion transistors on a chip
  • also, HiSilicon Kiri 9000, 15.3 billion transistors on a chip, Huawei
  • 2021: AMD Ryzen 7 5800H: 10.7 billion
  • 2021: Apple M1 Pro: new record, 37 billion transistors on a chip;
  • 2021: Apple M1 Max: new record, 57 billion transistors on a chip;

October 20, 2021: this graphic was updated over at wiki overnight --

October 18, 2021: Apple introduces the M1 Pro and the M1 Max. The former with 33 billion transistors on a 5nm chip and the latter with 55 billion transistors on a 5 nm chip. At the time Apple introduced the M1, Apple held the record with 16 billion chips on a 7 nm chip. Intel has been unable to perfect the 10-nm chip. October 17, 2021: TSMC update; getting ready for high volume manufacturing of 2NM chips in 2022.

May 23, 2021: TSMC to invest in Arizona and Texas. Huge story

April 24, 2021: M1 -- a new era for the PC

March 1, 2021: TSMC -- Apple's main chip supplier -- ready to mass produce 3nm chips. Huge. 

February 8, 2021: the next Apple chip, the "M2."

February 4, 2021: semiconductor chip shortage forces Ford to curtail F-150 production

January 24, 2021: seeing around corners. Plenty of time for Apple to take on TSMC and Samsung. This is not a sprint; this is a marathon. Apple started out as a "fashion design" company; then became a telephone company; it's now ready to become a chip company.

January 24, 2021: there is only one company that has the resources and the "culture" to take on both:

  • Samsung and TSMC in the chipmaking business; and,
  • Tesla in the autonomous luxury car business;

January 24, 2021: the aha! moment, connecting the dots. There is considerable evidence that Apple means to compete with Samsung and TSMC in the chipmaking business. Period. Dot. If true, this is the most revolutionary pivot on Apple's long and winding road. See these posts:

January 14, 2021: huge shortage. This is starting to get serious.

January 11, 2021: Intel may outsource to Taiwan Semiconductor for chips

Original Post

I may quit following the Bakken and move on to Apple. 

Just joking, but I am re-posting this. 

I completely missed this. 

Which suggests Tim Cook did a lousy job of explaining this to people like me when he announced the new Apple chips.

We'll start here.

Quick, pop quiz: how many transistors are on a single Apple M1 chip:

  • 10?
  • 20?
  • 50? or,
  • 100?

Wired: clearing off my desktop. I don't recall if I've posted the link to the Wired review. Here it is, possibly again. 

***************************************
Apple

Apple: the reviews with regard to the new Apple M1 chip and the new entry-level laptop computers have me salivating. Best deals this next Black Friday: link here. The revolution explained:

  • first things first: the computers do not look any different. They remain identical on the outside. To know if you have the "old" computer or the "new" computer, you need to look at the specs.
  • second, the "old" Apple computers used INTEL chips; the "new" Apple computers use their own new chips, referred to as M1 chips (I assume meaning the "first iteration of Mac" or "first iteration of Apple chips)

How are Intel chips different than Apple chips? One word: smaller. The Apple chips use transistors that are smaller. How much smaller? Get this: half the size. From this link:

Unlike Intel’s chips, the M1 is built using a 5-nanometer process, meaning its transistors measure just 5 nanometers in size. Intel, meanwhile, is stuck on a 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm chips would be delayed. AMD (AMD), for its part, is working with 7-nm chips, meaning that Apple is already ahead of the curve.
In case you don't like reading paragraphs but prefer data points:
  • Intel: 10-nanometer transistors; their announced move to 7-nanometers has been delayed; ouch;
  • AMD: is working with 7-nanometer transistors
  • Apple's Silicon Valley / M1 transistors: 5 nanometers

In addition, the entire computer is designed to work as one unit:

  • CPU
  • GPU
  • hardware
  • software

For example, from the linked review, the M1 chip in the MacBook Pro means that Apple uses its own image signal processor for its FaceTime camera, which dramatically improves the image quality of your video chats. 

I was never really bothered by fans but apparently a lot of folks were. The new Apple laptops using the M1 don't have fans. Huge.

And then, finally this:

As for battery life, Apple promises the Pro will get a whopping 20 hours of power out of a single charge while playing back video, compared to 10 hours for the Intel version of the machine. .... the battery in [the linked] review unit seemed like it just wouldn’t quit. Even after a full day of use, [it] still had plenty of juice to keep using the Pro well into the night.
By the way, the reviewer had only one complaint. And then speaks volumes about the reviewer and his understanding of the word "mobile." 

What’s not so fantastic is that the M1-powered Pro includes just two Thunderbolt/ USB C ports, while the Intel version gets 4. If you’re the type of person who needs as many ports as possible, that’s a big bummer.

The laptop is designed for "those on the go." How many ports do you need? And if you need more ports, external ports are a dime a dozen (a bit of hyperbole, but not much):

Quick, pop quiz: how many transistors are on a single Apple M1 chip:

  • 10?
  • 20?
  • 50? or,
  • 100?

Link here for answer.  Or here to get to the source article.

Or at wiki. At the wiki link, go to the table/spreadsheet, and scroll to the bottom. Note where Apple stands. 

This is a big deal. Even I didn't realize what a big deal this was -- and the price for these new computers. They have not increased in price. 

The end of Moore's Law? Link here to a 2018 article. Apparently Apple didn't get the memo:

Moore’s Law was an observation about process technology and economics. For half a century it drove the aspirations of the semiconductor industry. But the other limitation to packing more transistors onto to a chip is a physical limitation called Dennard scaling – as transistors get smaller, their power density stays constant, so that the power use stays in proportion with area. This basic law of physics has created a “Power Wall” — a barrier to clock speed — that has limited microprocessor frequency to around 4 GHz since 2005. It’s why clock speeds on your microprocessor stopped increasing with leaps and bounds 13 years ago. And why memory density is not going to increase at the rate we saw a decade ago.

This problem of continuing to shrink transistors is so hard that even Intel, the leader in microprocessors and for decades the gold standard in leading fab technology, has had problems. Industry observers have suggested that Intel has hit several speed bumps on the way to their next generation push to 10- and 7-nanometer designs and now is trailing TSMC and Samsung.

This combination of spiraling fab cost, technology barriers, power density limits and diminishing returns is the reason that Global Foundriest threw in the towel on further shrinking line widths . It also means the future direction of innovation on silicon is no longer predictable.

Now, having read this (and more will be posted, I'm sure), two questions, related:

  • where does Apple go next? and,
  • does Apple have a new revenue stream?

7 comments:

  1. I worked in semiconductor fabs for decades, now retired. The amount of knowledge, precision machinery, purity of materials to make a processor is mind boggling. Reading the following link on EUV stepper (machine that prints the 5 nanometer lines), your eyes will glaze over in minutes.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_ultraviolet_lithography.

    5nm line is hard to imagine. Standard aluminum foil is 16,000 nm thickness to get an idea of how small 5 nm is. A hydrogen atom is 0.1 nanometer in diameter So a 5nm line is about 50 hydrogen atoms wide.



    A human hair is about

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  2. Just looked it up. A typical human hair is 60 microns or 60,000 nm, can vary from 50,000-100,000 nanometers.

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    1. 50,000 nanometers for a human hair, and 5 to 10 nm for a transistor. Amazing. I can't even imagine.

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  3. Yup. Okay, then if you have a human hair that is 60,000 nm diameter. Area formula for area is PiR squared times 3.14. That calculates to north of 11,000,000,000 wires of 5mn wires assuming that no space between them. If you increase the wire size to 10mn then you will have about 2,000,000,000 wires in that human hair size

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    1. Sorry for the delay in posting. I went to bed early.

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  4. The machine that does the photo lithography to do the 5nm lines is made by AMSL. Cost is about $100,000,000.00. A bit more than a new Boeing 737.

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    Replies
    1. Apple will get its money back this holiday season. LOL.

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