Independence Day -- November 30, 2019

Before getting started, from August 22, 2019:
 

Doofus-in-Chief

Never mind.

By the way, if you ever want to find that clip quickly, search "doofus."

US energy independence: top story of the week. "Everybody" is reporting this story -- except the mainstream media, CNBC, network news, NPR, and/or The Rolling Stone:

• Can the US become energy independent by next year? -- Rystad Energy via oilprice.
• US on its way to energy independence -- Rigzone. 
• US oil rigs continue to fall -- oilprice. 
• screenshot below from Bloomberg -- September, 2019, data; 

From the Bloomberg story:

The U.S. solidified its status as an energy producer by posting the first full month as a net exporter of crude and petroleum products since government records began in 1949.

The nation exported 89,000 barrels a day more than it imported in September, according to data from the Energy Information Administration Friday. While the U.S. has previously reported net exports on a weekly basis, today’s figures mark a key milestone that few would have predicted just a decade ago, before the onset of the shale boom.

President Donald Trump has touted American energy independence, saying that the nation is moving away from relying on foreign oil. While the net exports show decreasing reliance on imports, the U.S. still continues to buy heavy crude oil from other nations to meet the needs of its refineries. It also buys refined products when they are available for a lower cost from foreign suppliers. [Bloomberg conveniently omits the reason the US needs to import heavy crude oil from the Mideast.]

“The U.S. return to being a net exporter serves to remind how the oil industry can deliver surprises -- in this case, the shale oil revolution - that upend global oil prices, production, and trade flows,” said Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush and president of the consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.

EIA's official production data for September, 2019: link here. 

The shale revolution: earlier this year, the EIA added new production plays to its weekly oil reports.

This is perhaps most surprising news of the day, however.  "Everyone" knew the US was on its way to energy independence; no one saw this coming. Link here.

Previously Posted

Peak oil? What peak oil? US September crude oil production at 12.463 million bopd vs 12.397 (revised up from 12.365) million bopd in August; about a half-percent increase month-over-month, but September numbers will probably be revised up also. STEO report forecast 12.59 million bopd for September. So, actual production came in at a bit less than projected.

Also from twitter earlier today:

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And The Trend Will Continue

From a SeekingAlpha contributor:

• US oil production has been the least surprising variable this year.
• the growth trajectory is so far in-line with previous estimates with year-end figures ranging between ~12.8 to ~12.9 mb/d
• one thing is of certainty now though - the weekly + adjustment US oil production in the weekly EIA reports no longer explains production
• in September, weekly + adjustment showed an implied US oil production of 13.156 mb/d, while EIA 914 showed ~12.463 mb/d. This is a delta of ~693k b/d
• according to our US oil production matrix, we have US oil production at ~12.7 mb/d for October, which is ~240k b/d higher m-o-m. 
• for the year-end, the exit appears to be ~12.9 mb/d with Q1 showing slightly lower production