Monday, November 23, 2015

Peak Oil. What Peak Oil? US Increased Its Proved Reserves For Sixth Year In A Row; This Time By Almost 10% -- November 23, 2015

EIA's energy "cookie" today:
U.S. crude oil proved reserves increased in 2014 for the sixth year in a row with a net addition of 3.4 billion barrels of proved oil reserves (a 9% increase), according to U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, 2014, released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. natural gas proved reserves increased 10% in 2014, raising the U.S. total to a record 388.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).
At the state level, Texas had the largest increase in proved reserves, 2,054 million barrels (60% of the nation’s total net increase) in 2014. Most of these new oil reserves were added in the Texas portion of the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford Shale play.
North Dakota had the second-largest increase—a net gain of 362 million barrels—most of which were added in the Bakken tight oil play of the Williston Basin.
Pennsylvania added 10.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas proved reserves (the largest net increase for any state in 2014) driven by continued development of the Marcellus Shale play. Texas added 8 Tcf of natural gas proved reserves, mostly from the Eagle Ford Shale play and natural gas associated with the state’s gain in oil reserves in the Permian Basin. Natural gas from shale formations was 51% of the U.S. total of natural gas proved reserves in 2014.
U.S. production of both oil and natural gas increased in 2014. Production of crude oil and lease condensate increased about 17% (rising from 7.4 to 8.7 million barrels per day), while U.S. production of natural gas increased 6% (rising from approximately 73 to 77 billion cubic feet per day).
Definition: Proved reserves are those volumes of oil and natural gas that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.
So, according to Peak Oil Theory, the US was in a downward decline somewhere after the 1980s, and must have reached the Hubbert Peak some decades ago, and now, what do you know, for the sixth year in a row, the US increased its proved reserves; this past year proved reserves increased by 10%. The North Dakota Bakken Boom began about six years ago; it officially began in 2007, about eight years ago. The graph at this post shows the phenomenon well, but it needs to be updated.

By the way, when you parse the definition of "proved reserves," it seems the formula would be fairly complex, with much subjectivity used in final numbers. The EURs in the Bakken, alone, have increased dramatically in just one year.

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