Thursday, June 19, 2014

Jobless Claims Go Down -- Numbers Signal Sustained Progress In The Labor Market

Boiler plate:
US jobless claims decreased this past week holding down this year’s average and signaling sustained progress in the labor market.
The four-week average of claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, declined to 311,750 from 315,500 the week before.
The Labor Department revised the prior week’s reading to 318,000 from an initially reported 317,000. 

Bloomberg is reporting:
Jobless claims fell 6,000 to 312,000 in the week ended June 14, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 313,000. The total number of people collecting benefits decreased to the lowest level in almost seven years
... that's because Congress has not extended benefits for the long-term unemployed.

So, the overall number is still above 300,000 but Bloomberg notes that the total number collecting benefits is at its lowest level in "almost" seven years, but doesn't explain why. Okay.

The market "likes" that number: futures are up. The Fed, I assume, had access to this data yesterday, and thus knew they weren't going to raise rates until 2015 or now, maybe not even until 2016.

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