Rambling On Investing -- October 31, 2023

Locator: 45883INV.

Earlier I posted by thoughts about blogging about EVs and renewable energy going forward.

Now, some rambling thoughts about macro-economic data. 

I will continue to follow macro-economics and will occasionally / link macro-economic data, but this past year, I've realized my attitude with regard to macro-economics has changed significantly. Macro-economic data means almost nothing to me -- not to be taken out of context. 

I don't invest in real estate, art, vintage automobiles, 24-year-old Scotch, gold, silver, bonds, -- which pretty much leaves equities. All things being equal, about the only thing that can really affect my personal portfolio now is tax policy -- annual taxes that I pay. Macro-economics affects my portfolio but it affects everyone's portfolio, as does tax policy. I can't do anything about macro-economic data; about the only thing I can affect is my personal taxes.

As you know, I don't time the market and stay fully invested.

I have five buckets of stocks from which I choose -- the various companies might vary a bit and the buckets could change over time. But I have a fairly robust and guaranteed, as much as anything is guaranteed, revenue stream which will go into the market each month.

So, regardless what the macro-economic "charts" show,  I'm still building positions. I will sell if things change, but it takes a lot to get me to sell when cost basis trends toward $0 and dividends keep increasing -- which is true for most of my energy companies.

With regard to macro-investing, even the big banks, fund managers, fiduciaries, life insurance companies, and respected analysts can't agree.

After that group (big banks, fund managers, fiduciaries,life insurance companies, and respected analysts) we move into "folks" with political slants -- ZeroHedge, PowerLine, Breitbart, NY Times editorial board, Washington Post editorial board, etc.

Nobel laureates can't even agree on the cause of inflation, yada, yada, yada. And forecasting GDP is so difficult, they do estimates every other day or every other week, depending when data is released.

Everything I've read suggests Buffett and Munger buy when they see good value and don't really pay attention to macro-economic data -- I'm sure they do, but Buffett has said he doesn't watch macro-economic data, but watches for good value. A lot of their decisions are also affected by tax policy -- and with the huge amount of cash they have, tax policy has a huge impact on what Buffett / Munger do and don't do.

Exhibit A:

Back in my early days of investing, back in the early 1980s I suppose, I started building a position in Steris. Working in the medical field, I saw firsthand how much Steris was being bought by hospitals. But then something changed with macro-economic data. I've long forgotten what but it had nothing to do with Steris the company per se, but, regardless, I sold all my Steris, probably in the late 1990s. 

This is what I sold back in the 1990s or whenever it was: