Friday, January 6, 2023

Jobs Report, December, 2022, Report -- January 6, 2023

BLS jobs report at 7:30 a.m. ET: just being reported now; BLS here; unemployment chart here;
  • numbers:
    • pace of wage growth slowed
    • 223,000 new jobs created in December, 2022
    • well ahead of the Street forecast of 200,000
    • unemployment rate fell to 3.5% (from 3.7%? was revised to 3.6% in November, 2022)
  • most CNBC panelists see these numbers as a great report
  • market surges: hourly wages not as high as forecast
    • wage growth: 0.3%
  • pace of wage growth way down, from 5.5% to 4.1% suggests an inflation rate of 3.5 
  • as noted, in a recessionary environment, I prefer looking at U-1, not U-3:

Squawk Box, panel:

  • "about as perfect report as we could get!"
    • goods: we could see deflation this year
    • services: ? -- but this report, optimistic
  • a strong report; wage growth well below inflation; not a good number if you are a blue-collar worker;
  • Liesman: sounded optimistic despite his overall cautious attitude
    • unemployment rate down to 3.5%
    • long-term unemployed has come down
    • tech people losing their jobs, not staying unemployed; finding jobs quickly
    • catch-up from Covid for services workers
  • beginning of a soft landing? everyone getting jobs but wage pressure less of an issue
  • Rick Santelli: optimistic, as usual;

Dow:

  • trending flat before the BLS numbers;
  • now, up 260 300 points about 15 minutes after report released

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