Friday Morning -- The Lunar Eclipse Edition -- November 19, 2021

Lunar eclipse: yup, it really happened as predicted. I was up at 3:00 a.m. CT to see the "red moon." I wore special glasses to protect any chance I might burn my retinas looking directly at the moon. Fortunately I caught the warning on the internet, otherwise I might have missed it. Everything you wanted to know about the lunar eclipse earlier this morning: it was the longest lunar eclipse in over 500 years .... since 1440 AD.

Anyone for French toast? Link here to "Dad Mode."

Covid-19: apparently Austria went back into "total lockdown." That explains the sudden drop in the Dow in pre-market trading. That was the CNBC saying that, not me. 

That social spending bill in the US House: will add less than $400 billion to the US debt over ten years. Couldn't Elon Musk cover this if necessary? That puts the whole think in perspective. 

Inflation: wow, wow, wow. The retailers are doing very, very, very well -- if you've been following the market, you are are well aware of this. All that talk about Target and Walmart telling us they won't raise prices; Target said a couple days ago they would take the hit themselves, not raise prices for their customers. LOL. Prices are rising so fast at Target, employees cannot update the price at the shelf with what is actually charged at the register. I have several examples, but I doubt anyone cares. Okay, here are two examples. I have been buying a particular item over the past four weeks, buying one of the unnamed items about every four to five days. For the past month one of the items has been priced at $17. Two days ago, still priced at $17 at the shelf, it scanned at $18 at the checkout register. The other unnamed item has been $12, like forever, and I've bought at least a dozen over the past month or so. Last night, I picked up two more, still priced at $12 at the shelf, but each scanned $15 at the checkout counter. I bought everything as planned. Didn't bother me, nor did it surprise me. But Target is going to have an incredible quarter when they report in January, 2022. 

Options expiration Friday, today.

• ten-year treasury: trending down -- interesting, huh, with all that hand-writing about inflation;
  
• WTI: continues to fall
• Bitcoin falling like a rock, along with Rivian off it's all-time high; RIVN fell almost 16% yesterday, but in pre-market trading today, has come back a bit; Bitcoin now well below $60,000;
  

WTI: continues to fall. This is an interesting phenomenon. Prior to the fall from $85 to $76 (WTI) the tea leaves suggested there would be a short-term glut (4Q21) to be followed by an over-supply by 2Q22 if not sooner. So, that's very, very bearish, right, huh? Nope, this is exactly what the market needs and what investors in oil need. It's counterintuitive, but Bloomberg makes the case. It's very, very interesting. 

By the way, Carter Worth who reads charts for CNBC, yesterday afternoon on Fast Money, predicted WTI would drop 20% this next week. He showed dramatically how he "knew" this would happen. Wow, was that a great call or not? We're headed for a 20% fall.

US --> China: so, what's the "-->"? LNG. Link here. LNG tanker rates to Asia surged to a record high as a steady flow of US cargoes to the region boosts demand for ships. 

LNG shipments from Australia to Japan have surged by more than 400% in the last two months to $316,750/day.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: this is an estimate, +/- two to three rigs due to fact NDIC not updating the data until the end of the day, and even those updates often have errors, according to readers. 

$77.65	11/19/2021	11/19/2020	11/19/2019	11/19/2018	11/19/2017
Active Rigs	31	15	55	62	56

Friday, November 19, 2021: 27 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 281 for the year:

• 37659, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  
• 36895, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7HU, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --; see production profile below;
  

RBN Energy: how bioethylene fits into the energy transition discussion. 

Discussions about energy transition and increased electrification are all around us, whether they involve accelerating the ramp-up in renewable power sources such as wind and solar, facilitating the shift to electric vehicles, or switching to alternative fuels like hydrogen. But amid all the talk about the evolution to a low-carbon world — and away from oil and gas — there’s one area that is sometimes overlooked: petrochemicals. In the U.S., most steam crackers use natural gas liquids (NGLs) as their primary feedstocks, and they also consume a lot of energy — two big red flags in an increasingly ESG-focused world. And that’s giving bioethylene, billed as a green alternative to traditional ethylene, a moment in the spotlight. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how bioethylene is produced, how it differs from ethylene produced from traditional measures, and why it may someday evolve into an attractive alternative for the petrochemical industry, even though it’s far from a sure thing.

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Production Profile For The Whiting Satterthwaite Well

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2021	18940	17454
8-2021	21684	8663
7-2021	13424	1261
6-2021	336	0
5-2021	60	0