Notes And Comment -- Early Morning -- April 13, 2021

This should have been a slow news day but so much is going on, it's hard to keep up. 

I haven't even gotten to the Spratly Islands story. The Spratly Islands were the focus of a major USAF war gaming exercise at the Air War College when I was a student there back in 1993 - 1994. One wonders if China was preparing for three decades to take advantage of first opportunity to take on a weak, confused administration? China has a three-year window. There seems to be on "line" missing in the graphic at this link.

Inflation number seemed not to be anywhere near as bad as some feared: 1.6 vs 1.5. Seventeen hours ago, before the report was released.

The March consumer price index is expected to show a moderate 0.2% increase in core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. On a year-over-year basis, that is a 1.5% pace, compared to 1.3% in February.

March headline inflation is expected to increase by 0.5% or 2.5% year-over-year, up from 1.7% in February. By May, some economists expect headline inflation could be running at an year-over- year rate of 3.5% or more. The headline rate was last at 2.5% in January, 2020. 

Today's story on inflation not yet posted by CNBC but apparently the "early number" was 1.6. 

JNJ: most of the Dow pullback just before the market opened was due to JNJ. I posted the following yesterday. Talk about perfect timing. JNJ closed down 1.34%; closed at $159.48.

At the opening:

• Dow: was slightly positive throughout the night; then just after the JNJ announcement, Dow goes 3-digit negative; opens 112 points down;
• NASDAQ: opens up 86 points; what's APPL doing? Oh, that's nice -- up almost a percent; up almost $1.20; now trading over $132. 
• MNRL: up slightly; up 0.4%; trading at $15.49; closed at $15.70;
  
• EPD: down 0.11%; closed at $22.94; down slightly;
  
• ENB: down 0.25%; closed at $36.73; absolutely no change;
  
• ET: down 1.05%; closed at $8.00; down almost one percent;
  
• PAA: down 1.56%; closed at $8.91; down about half a percent;
  

CLR: update on 1Q21 production here; full results to be posted April 29, 2021, mid-day.
production estimates:

• 1Q21: 152K bopd (negative impact, cold weather)
• 2Q21: 160K bopd
• cash and debt:
• 1Q21: reduced total debt to just under $5 billion
• 1Q21: cash balance of just under $100 million
• "significant reduction from year-end 2020" but that number not provided
• full year 2021: hoping to reduce total debt to $4 billion or below

AAPL:

• with a recent move from $119 to $133 / I suggested that AAPL had "broken out" a couple of days ago. More evidence: today AAPL is up almost 1.5%; up almost $2.00; now trading over $133.
• staggering: and no one seems to notice -- PC shipments notch fastest quarterly growth in twenty years; in twenty years! Are you kidding me. That is completely staggering. The pie has gotten much, much bigger, and the number of slices (number of PC makers) has dropped considerably.
• China’s Lenovo Group Ltd grabbed the lead with a 25.1% market share, followed by HP Inc, Dell Technologies Inc, Apple Inc and Acer Group, according to the report.
• expect to see much more at MacRumors later;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Semiconductor White House summit: I wonder how that went. I haven't seen any updated stories, and I certainly haven't seen any "actionable" recommendations. One wonders if the president even showed up, except, of course, to make opening statements. Certainly no tweets.

****************************
Investing Basics

Dow Jones 101: link here. Price-based.

Pop quiz! Quick: what is the "divisor"? Why is there a "divisor"? Essay, worth 25 points.

Extra credit, 25 points: what's the divisor today? Link here.

S&P 500: link here.  Market-cap based.

Pop quiz! Quick: name the one FAANG stock that is not in the top ten "biggest stocks" in the S&P 500 as noted at the link.