From earlier today:
Weekly EIA petroleum report:
- US crude oil in storage: 492.4 million bbls; only one percent above the five-year average for this time of year;
- US crude oil in storage decreased by a non-trivial 5.9 million bbls from the previous week;
- US distillate fuel supplies decreased by 2.1 million bbls last week, but still 4% above the five-year average;
- US refiners operating at 85% their operable capacity;
- imports, FWIW, averaged almost 6 million bpd; down by about a half-million bpd;
- over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6 million bpd; 0.7% more than same four-week period last week;
So, think about that:
possibly driving into the most uncharted territory ever -- coming out
of a pandemic where people do not want to use mass transportation, and
US driving season about to begin --
- US crude oil in storage only one percent above the five-year average for this time of the year;
- what about gasoline: production is increasing but inventories decreased last week;
- gasoline imports are running about a million bpd day (rounded up from 839,000 bpd)
Now, more. The weekly EIA petroleum report was absolutely incredible. It paints an incredible picture of just how fast "we" are coming out of the pandemic.
Jet fuel delivery: look at the huge change -- this was such an incredible change, I had to check it twice:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week |
|
|
Week |
Date of Report |
Change |
Week 41 |
March 3, 2021 |
-24.20% |
Week 42 |
March 10, 2021 |
-29.80% |
Week 43 |
March 17, 2021 |
-36.20% |
Week 44 |
March 24, 2021 |
-35.40% |
Week 45 |
March 31, 2021 |
-30.20% |
Week 46 |
April 7, 2021 |
-11.70% |
Week 47 |
April 14, 2021 |
24.80% |
Crude oil imports, look at the last column:
Crude Oil Imports |
|
|
|
|
Week (week-over-week) |
Date of Report |
Raw Data, millions of bbls |
Change (millions of bbls) |
Four-week period comparison |
Week 41 |
December 23, 2020 |
5.6 |
0.140 |
-12.900% |
Week 42 |
December 30, 2020 |
5.3 |
-0.238 |
-14.400% |
Week 43 |
January 6, 2021 |
5.4 |
0.043 |
-18.100% |
Week 44 |
January 13, 2021 |
6.2 |
0.900 |
14.900% |
Week 45 |
January 22, 2021 |
6.0 |
-0.194 |
-11.800% |
Week 46 |
January 27, 2021 |
5.1 |
-1.000 |
-13.900% |
Week 47 |
February 3, 2021 |
6.5 |
1.400 |
-9.200% |
Week 48 |
February 10, 2021 |
5.9 |
-0.700 |
-12.000% |
Week 49 |
February 18, 2021 |
5.9 |
0.041 |
|
Week 50 |
February 24, 2021 |
4.6 |
-1.300 |
-13.300% |
Week 51 |
March 3, 2021 |
6.3 |
1.700 |
-12.800% |
Week 52 |
March 10, 2021 |
5.7 |
-0.600 |
|
Week 53 |
March 17, 2021 |
5.3 |
-0.332 |
13.900% |
Week 54 |
March 24, 2021 |
5.6 |
0.300 |
-9.500% |
Week 55 |
March 31, 2021 |
6.1 |
0.500 |
-9.400% |
Week 56 |
April 7, 2021 |
6.3 |
0.119 |
-5.000% |
Week 57 |
April 14, 2021 |
5.9 |
-0.411 |
0.700% |
Distillate fuel in storage:
Distillate Fuel Inventories |
|
|
|
Week |
Date of Report |
Change in Millions |
Relative to 5-Yr Avg |
Week 20 |
January 6, 2021 |
6.40 |
4.0% |
Week 21 |
January 13, 2021 |
4.80 |
9.0% |
Week 22 |
January 22, 2021 |
0.50 |
8.0% |
Week 23 |
January 27, 2021 |
-0.80 |
8.0% |
Week 24 |
February 3, 2021 |
0.00 |
8.0% |
Week 25 |
February 10, 2021 |
-1.70 |
7.0% |
Week 26 |
February 18, 2021 |
-3.40 |
6.0% |
Week 27 |
February 24, 2021 |
-5.00 |
3.0% |
Week 28 |
March 3, 2021 |
-9.70 |
-17.0% |
Week 29 |
March 10, 2021 |
-5.50 |
-4.0% |
Week 30 |
March 17, 2021 |
0.30 |
-2.0% |
Week 31 |
March 24, 2021 |
3.80 |
1.0% |
Week 32 |
March 31, 2021 |
2.50 |
4.0% |
Week 33 |
April 7, 2021 |
1.50 |
5.0% |
Week 34 |
Apr 14, 2021 |
-2.10 |
4.0% |
Looking at EIA reports for several weeks. Domestic production stagnant at 11mm bbls/day. Report yesterday shows inventory of crude and product drop of 9 mm bbl and imports for the week 4.5 mm bbl. Imports of crude and product now 2 mm bbl/day.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at the EIA report released yesterday:
DeleteUS crude oil imports average 5.9 million bpd, down by 411,000 bpd from the previous week;
Total motor gasoline imports last week averaged 830,000 bpd and distillate fuel imports averaged 261,000 bpd. [No previous data provided.]
I would hardly cal1 US production of 11 million bpd stagnant at this point. What's the max the US has ever produced?
Link here: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=a.
See graphic at that link. Amazing. Eleven million is certainly not a bad number.
US production:
in 2017: a new record at 9.4 million bopd
in 2018: a new record at 10.964 million bopd
in 2019: a huge new record of 12.248 million bopd
in 2020: back to 11.315 million bopd
current EIA estimated: 11.00 million bopd
If you want to see oil drop precipitously in price, let US production jump to 13 million bopd and see what Saudi Arabia does in response.
The delta between 11 million bopd and 12 million bopd could be made up in weeks if necessary.
I'm not focused on production at this point. To a great extent, it's meaningless for me as a metric to follow. The "re-balancing" numbers prove that -- crude oil in storage essentially unchanged for years. I'm focused on demand; refinery operating capacity, and most importantly not the change month over month (the velocity) but rather the rate of change month over month (acceleration).
By the way, crude oil in storage is less important to me than the number of days of crude oil in storage: the best number for me is about 21 days and under. Currently we remain at record highs; recently over 40 days in storage and currently (most recent data): 33 days, down from 36 days two weeks ago, and down from 40 weeks about a month ago.
Yesterday's report is perhaps the most bullish reports I've seen in the past twelve months -- it speak volumes about the US re-opening.
Days in storage at this link: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPC0_VSD_NUS_DAYS&f=W
DeleteI wouldn't go off the weekly numbers (they are a mess). But I agree based on NOV, DEC, JAN monthlies that we've been pretty close to flat (how I would define stagnant). Since then, the frac count is right around what is needed for breakeven also. FEB will have a hitch from the freeze, but MAR will rebound (already happened, but we don't have real monthly data yet). APR will also be pretty flat. Maybe a little more recovery, but I doubt north of NOV. I would not be surprised with some modest growth later in the year. But the rig/frac count pretty clearly spells out that things are going to be relatively slow. Rigs should continue to add slowly over the summer, but even with that I doubt we break 11.5 by end of 2021.
ReplyDeleteAgree completely.
DeleteFor me, the most important metric is gasoline demand; the second most important, numbers of days of crude oil in storage in the US.