Chinese Flu Watch -- November 28, 2020

Later: for the archives -- ND breaks below 1,000! Before the vaccine is available -- this is a seven-day average, so unlikely due to an anomalous outlier --

Chinese flu watch. Overnight I noted some interesting trends. Interesting to say the least. ZeroHedge, meanwhile, asks whether Europe has broken the second wave? By the way, it should be noted:

• if I recall correctly, there was evidence that smallpox was retreating even before the vaccine became available; and,
• the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 - 1920 disappeared despite no vaccine ever being developed; and,
• have we heard much about Ebola lately?

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The Sources

Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.

WSJ - Johns Hopkins data.  

CDC: MMWR. 

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Where We Are

Exhibit A:

• at the Johns Hopkins source, look at the "brown" US map. Definitely, without question the brown is not as dark as it was a week ago. It's quite startling. And neither the west coast nor the east coast is brown at all. Again, remember, no vaccine yet.
  

Exhibit B:

• that colorful graph with the weekly new cases per 100,000 people. North Dakota, still at the top, has reversed direction suddenly. Just last week it was trending toward 1300, now it is clearly trending towards 1000. That's a breathtaking reversal -- and, yet, no vaccine. 

Exhibit C:

• that same graph. South Dakota drops to fifth. Wow. And is now trending toward a very, very respectful 700.  South Dakota re-joins the "700 Club" with Wyoming (#2); New Mexico (#3); and, Montana, #4. As noted, ND remains #1 and SD is #5.

Exhibit D: at the worldometer site,

• penetration rate (herd immunity/culling the herd):
• North Dakota, #1: hits 10.1% -- new milestone for those looking for herd immunity;
• South Dakota, #2: not far behind at 8.8%
• Minnesota: a long, long way to go; strict lockdown efforts slowing opportunity for her immunity; penetration at a dismal 5.2% (#12 in the rankings)
• the US, overall sits between South Carolina (#28) and Alaska (#29) at 4.1% -- a long, long way to go toward reaching herd immunity
• deaths per capita:
• North Dakota has not moved for days, weeks (?): at #8
• South Dakota: takes huge jump from the mid-20's not so long ago to #9 today
• due to population sizes, it's very possible that ND and SD will eventually displace NJ and NY in this category, currently #1, #2 respectively, today

Exhibit E: North Dakota at the worldometer site,

• the reversal in active cases is dramatic; has ND broken the first wave (yes, check out the graph; this is ND's first wave; interesting, huh?
• spike in daily death as reported November 24, 2020 (37), was clearly an anomaly of reporting; but if you accept it as gospel, then note the most recent data for November 26 (10) and November 27 (5);
• the overall trend is down after a sharp jump corresponding to surge in new cases in ND's first wave which began in late August and appears to have peaked in early November
• by the way, I mentioned in passing that the "shortage" of nursing staff in ND was to some degree self-inflicted, it turns out that state officials are now looking at that very issue; that they need to accept the "NFL standard," not the "NCAA standard."

Exhibit F:

• all this is very interesting considering we have now entered (but still very early) the "cold and flu" season in which all cases of "seasonal flu" will be reported as Covid-19. Physicians have historically not tested for "seasonal flu" and I have heart nothing to suggest otherwise this year; but physicians test three, four, five times the same individual for Covid-19, and use the most sensitive testing available.

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Europe

 Link here.