Thursday, September 24, 2020

Does Anybody Really Care Any More? Except For Gasoline Demand, Not Much Changed Week-Over-Week -- September 24, 2020

Gasoline demand: oh-oh -- link here: if I had only one metric to track the health of the US economy, and I can argue that gasoline demand is a leading indicator.

Jobless report: holds steady at 900K. Link here

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here.

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by 1.6 million bbls -- inconsequential.
  • US crude oil in storage: 494.4 million bbls
  • US crude oil in storage remains about 13% above the already-fat five-year average
  • US refineries are operating at 74.8% capacity, down another percent from last week; wow; that may start to explain the reason the price of gasoline is jumping;
  • US crude oil imports average 5.2 million bopd, up a bit from last week; imports  now averaging about 24.2% less than same four-week period last year (2019) (it was 20% last week)
  • distillate production decreased last week; over the past four weeks, down by 8.2% from same period last year
  • jet fuel supplied was down 45.8% compared with same four-week period last year; unchanged from last report

Re-Balancing:

Week

Date of Report=

Change

Million Bbls Storage

Over/under 5-year average

Week 0

November 21, 2018

4.9

446.9


Week 1

November 28, 2018

3.6

450.5


Week 2

December 6, 2018

-7.3

443.2


Week 3

December 12, 2018

-1.2

442.0


Week 4

December 19, 2018

-0.5

441.5


Week 5

December 28, 2018

0.0

441.4


Week 84

July 15, 2020

-7.5

531.7

17%

Week 85

July 22, 2020

4.9

536.6

19%

Week 86

July 29, 2020

-10.6

526.0

17%

Week 87

August 5, 2020

-7.4

518.6

16%

Week 88

August 12, 2020

-4.5

514.1


Week 89

August 19, 2020

-1.6

512.5


Week 90

August 26, 2020

-4.7

507.8

15%

Week 91

September 2, 2020

-9.4

498.4

14%

Week 92

September 10, 2020

2.0

500.5

14%

Week 93

September 16, 2020

-4.4

496.0

14%

Week 94

September 23, 2020

-1.6

494.4

13%

Jet fuel:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 0

3/7/2020

-12.80%

Week 1

3/14/2020

-12.60%

Week 2

3/21/2020

-8.90%

Week 3

3/28/2020

-16.40%

Week 4

4/4/2020

-0.22%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

-51.90%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

-47.70%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

-42.10%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

-40.90%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

-45.80%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

-47.60%

Week 24

August 26, 2020

-45.70%

Week 25

September 2, 2020

-47.10%

Week 26

September 10, 2020

-45.10%

Week 27

September 16, 2020

-45.60%

Week 28

September 23, 2020

-45.80%

Distillates:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 1

August 26, 2020

1.40

24.0%

Week 2

September 2, 2020

-1.70

23.0%

Week 3

September 10, 2020

-1.70

20.0%

Week 4

September 16, 2020

3.50

22.0%

Week 5

September 23, 2020

-3.40

21.0%

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 0

March 11, 2029

6.4

0.174


Week 1

March 18, 2020

6.5

0.127


Week 2

March 25, 2020

6.1

-0.422


Week 3

April 1, 2020

6.0

-0.070


Week 4

April 8, 2020

5.9

-0.173


Week 5

April 15, 2020

5.7

-0.194


Week 6

April 22, 2020

5.6

-0.700


Week 7

April 29, 2020

5.3

0.365

-19.700%

Week 8

May 6, 2020

5.7

0.410


Week 9

May 13, 2020

5.4

-0.321

-26.100%

Week 10

May 20, 2020

5.2

-0.194


Week 11

May 28, 2020

7.2

2.000

-16.400%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

6.2

-1.000

-18.300%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

6.4

0.000

-13.300%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

5.9

0.373

-13.500%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

5.1

-0.800

-13.600%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

6.0

0.900

-18.100%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

5.6

-0.389

-20.400%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

5.7

0.109

-21.700%

Week 24

August 26, 2020

5.9

0.185

-16.900%

Week 25

September 2, 2020

4.9

-1.000

-20.200%

Week 26

September 10, 2020

5.4

0.500

-17.900%

Week 27

September 16, 2020

5.0

-0.416

-20.100%

Week 28

September 23, 2020

5.2

0.160

-24.200%

 

4 comments:

  1. A balanced supply/demand report again ZZZZ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree 1000% but I'll comb through it when I get a chance. I think there might be some interesting data points, considering.

      Delete
  2. distillates demand was up 40.9% to a 6 month high...i'm guessing that was a record jump; last week it was just a hair above a 26 year low...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry for the delay in posting. The data point that caught my eye: crude oil imports. In the post above, the bottom/last chart, crude oil imports.

      For the 28 weeks I've followed this metric, the most recent data point was the second steepest decline in crude oil imports, down over 24% compared to same period last year. The steepest decline was a negative 26% in week 9 (May 13, 2020, report). The least was a negative 8.5% in week 17 (July 8, 2020, report).

      Delete