Recession Is Right Around The Corner, Part 2 -- November 22, 2019

Re-posting:

Janet Yellen: recession is right around the corner. That was yesterday. What a doofus.

This is today, this is from Reuters:

U.S. manufacturing output accelerated in November to its fastest pace in seven months and services activity also picked up more than expected, a survey of purchasing managers showed on Friday in a sign of the continued resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of the U.S.-China trade war and other headwinds.

IHS Markit said its "flash" purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 52.2 in November from a final reading of 51.3 in October, while its preliminary services PMI increased to 51.6 this month from 50.6 last month.

Both indexes were at their highest since April and were modestly above the median forecasts among economists polled by Reuters.

A reading above 50 signals expansion, while one below that mark indicates a contraction in activity.

China-US trade war? What trade war? Tim Cook moves Mac Pro to Austin, TX.

Consumer sentiment: Now why would I re-post the note above? Because there was even more good news today that was unreported. I just happened to catch it on talk radio. Consumer sentiment:

• prior: 95.7
• forecast: 95.7
• actual: 96.8
• narrative:  

Consumer sentiment continues to recover from its tariff-related scare in August, at 96.8 in final November for the best score since July.

Expectations lead the report, up more than 3 points to 87.3 in a gain that likely reflects confidence in future income. Not contributing to November, however, are current conditions, down 1.6 points to 111.6 in a reading that is not pointing to consumer momentum going into the holidays.

Inflation expectations are very subdued but at least aren't falling, holding steady at 2.5 percent for the year-ahead outlook and actually rising 2 tenths for the 5-year outlook which is also back at 2.5 percent. Note that the 2.5 percent year-ahead rate matched Econoday's consensus.

Impeachment proceedings have yet to skew results, but the report does note increasing polarization among the sample, with one side anticipating recession and the other uninterrupted expansion. Today's results will likely lift expectations for next week's consumer confidence data from the Conference Board which have been on a deep two-month slide.

Existing home sales, link here:

• prior: 5.380 million
• prior revised: 5.360 million
• forecast: 5.480 million
• actual: 5.460 million
• narrative:

Favorable mortgage rates together with high levels of employment are giving housing, a sector that had been flat, a strong lift going into year end. Existing home sales rose 1.9 percent in October to a 5.460 million annual rate, lifting the year-on-year gain to 4.6 percent. Recent reports have been the best since early 2018.

Single-family resales jumped 2.1 percent in the month to a 4.870 million rate with year-on-year change at plus 5.4 percent.

Condo resales came in steady at a 590,000 rate but, in contrast to the larger single-family category, are down 1.7 percent on the year. The median price for single-family sales, at $273,600, is 6.2 percent higher than a year ago with the median condo price, of $248,500, up 5.6 percent.

It was the spring sales season in 2018 that proved a flop, pulling the housing sector into a dip from which it is only now beginning to emerge. Yet the pivot upward for resales, despite the strength of this report, has been less visible than for new homes where starts and especially permits data released on Tuesday were very favorable. November sales of new single-family homes will be posted next week.

Doesn't have the "flavor" of "recession just around the corner."