US Farm Update -- Corn, Soy One Month Behind -- Let's Hope For A Longer Summer Than Usual -- July 26, 2019

US farm report: setup is like 1315. Link here at nextgrandminimum.  

This is a must-read. It's a guest commentary by David Archibald at wattsupwiththat, that appears on nextgrandminimu.


Before we get to the linked article, from April 21, 2019:

NASA now predicting: A deep solar minimum is set to bring a prolonged period of colder temperatures across the globe, -- Monday, April 15, 2019.

In 2019, the Sun has been without sunspots for 59 percent of days - a sign that the solar minimum has arrived. The Sun follows cycles of roughly 11 years where it reaches a solar maximum and then a solar minimum. During a solar maximum, the Sun gives off more heat and is littered with sunspots. Less heat in a solar minimum is due to a decrease in magnetic waves.

As noted, this has been predicted for quite some time; apparently the deep solar minimum "has arrived."

Now, back to the linked article, the guest commentary by David Archibald.

• Corn, soybean status in Indiana:
• one month behind where it was in 2018
• maturity will be one month later at best, assuming that the rest of the summer isn't abnormally cold
• US forecast:
• US corn crop will be down 30% year-over-year
• should push the price of corn to about $9.00 / bushel at harvest
• early frost could make this much worse
• the Corn Belt did warm slightly over the last 100 years due to high solar activity of the second half of the 20th century
• this year, much different
• yield and quality of corn could be as much as 50% or less of the 2018 level

The commentary:

The US will be able to feed itself but at much higher prices. Currently some 40% of the corn crop goes to ethanol production and this could be redirected to animal feed without too much trouble. But protein production would still be well down. Each 56 lb bushel of corn used in ethanol production results in 18 lbs of dried distillers grains (DDG) containing the protein. This is used as a feed supplement to pigs, chickens and cattle. Both pigs and chickens have a 25% conversion efficiency of vegetable protein to animal protein. The global warmers want us to adopt vegetarianism in order to save the planet. The public is going to get a taste of that future coming up soon. However animal fat is essential for infant neurological development and brain function so we can’t go completely vegetarian.

What is happening in the Corn Belt is a mini version of the transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age. The population of Europe exploded in benign conditions of the Medieval Warm Period from 1000 AD to 1300 AD, reaching population levels that weren’t matched again until the 19^th century. In fact parts of rural France have less population today than at the beginning of the 14^th century.

Let's hope for a longer summer than usual. Actually, it's been pointed out that a longer summer won't help much. Total planting was way down due to spring flooding. A longer summer simply means things won't get worse than currently forecast.

The big concern is an earlier frost than usual

1315 all over again. Again, from the linked commentary:

The breakover from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age in Europe had sustained periods of bad weather characterised by severe winters and rainy and cold summers. The Great Famine of 1315 – 1317 started with bad weather in the spring of 1315. Crop failures lasted through 1316 until the summer of 1317.

The Modern Warm Period ended in 2006. Current solar activity is back to levels of the Little Ice Age.

A large and increasing number of nations are feeding their population growth with imported grain. That is going to be become more expensive to continue, with or without an early frost in the Corn Belt.

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The American Lexicon

Not ready for prime time.

In a reply to a reader who commented on the Mueller witch hunt:

As time goes by, Mueller's stellar reputation will be completely gone.

I'm waiting for "Mueller" to become part of the American lexicon, just as bork and quisling have become.

Definition of BORK: to attack or defeat (a nominee or candidate for public office) unfairly through an organized campaign of harsh public criticism or vilification

My hunch is that in the future, naming "respected government bureaucrats" to prestigious-sounding committees will be referred to as "Mueller appointments."

"It's Mueller time" will come to have an entirely new meaning.

A Mueller appointment: a figurehead appointment, generally one held by a doddering old fool who is unaware that he/she is being set up for failure to push a political agenda.