The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+35 -- December 10, 2018

France: violent protests, apparently, continue. I don't follow network news and video loops are replayed and replayed on the internet, so no one really knows what is going on today. But if the violent protests in France continue, other European leaders are watching closely; there won't be much "stomach" for increasing taxes or subsidizing wind and solar energy. Are events playing out in France right now just a bump in the road for socialists; wind/solar subsidies; or, are we seeing a tectonic shift in what Europeans are willing to tolerate? I'm thinking the latter.

France: one news network says President Macron is pleading with private businesses to give their workers bonuses. It is interesting that he did not suggest that such bonuses would incur no taxes.

WTI in the neighborhood: $1.79/gallon.

Gasoline demand. They must be reading the blog. For the past several months now, I've been talking about sluggish gasoline demand, which seems even more peculiar considering how inexpensive gasoline is. Now, Genscape over at oilprice is asking: is gasoline demand really slipping?

Nuclear energy. They must be reading the blog. For the past several days there has been a flurry of notes on the blog regarding nuclear energy. Over the weekend, from oilprice: are floating reactors the future of nuclear energy?

Renewable energy debate in the upper midwest (Minnesota/Wisconsin); from energynews. Some nice reporting -- lots of "in-between-the lines stuff that a lot of folks will probably miss.

Comment: a reader and I have been having an off-line e-mail discussion regarding

• current state of affairs in France (yellow vest revolution); 
• nuclear plants being decommissioned faster than expected in the US;
• decision for the government to not fund a nuclear waste processing plant already on the books
• persistence of the wind/solar energy lobby despite data;
• the early winter and record snowfall this autumn

In response to all that, my bottom line thoughts regarding all of this:

I honestly believe that movers and shakers in and the Deep State "conspired" back around 2011 to go all out with wind and solar. Had it not been for the shale revolution, things would have been a disaster by now. Think France.

It takes years to plan and executive closure of nuclear plants. "Current events" did not happen overnight. Decisions leading up to today's events were put in place years ago. I think the crescendo began in 1994 or thereabouts but reached a tipping point on March 11, 2011. On that date, the Deep State bureaucrats had the event they needed to go all out with renewable energy, no matter how much it cost.

Cost: by the way, the cost for US automobile drivers to meet the UN global warming mandate? $240-tax/gallon of gasoline. Over at The Daily Caller. The French can't even handle $8-gasoline. Correction, December 16, 2018 -- I wish I had not forgotten to post the link. Either The Daily Caller had a typographical error, or I misread it. It's not $240/gallon tax, but rather a $240/metric tonne of CO2 -- Don did the math:

Per gallon at $ 240 per metric tonne, or .12 cents per pound. (2200 pounds / metric tonne)

About 19.64 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) are produced from burning a gallon of gasoline that does not contain ethanol. About 22.38 pounds of CO2 are produced by burning a gallon of diesel fuel.May 21, 2014

$ 2.35 per gallon on gasoline

$ 2.69 per gallon of Diesel or J 8 ( jet fuel )

 French President Macron was asking for about 25-cent-tax/gallon of gasoline, and the French "yellow vests" would not accept even that small increase. No way is anyone going to accept an additional $2.35/gallon carbon tax.

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Gasoline Demand

From above --

Gasoline demand. Genscape over at oilprice is asking: is gasoline demand really slipping? What is Genscape saying? It begins:

Genscape data shows relatively flat growth in weekly year-on-year demand for September through November. On the other hand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Products Supplied data has shown year-on-year declines over the same period despite lower gasoline prices.

Our [Genscape] data shows U.S. total motor gasoline spot prices averaged $1.56/gal on November 28, down almost $0.70/gal from the high of $2.25/gal on October 2, pushing prices to the lowest level since June 30, 2017. Gasoline demand generally increases during prolonged periods of low prices, casting doubt on the demand declines. 

The writer of the article suggests, apparently, there is a significant difference between "relatively flat growth" and "year-on-year declines." Sounds like quibbling. Either way, it's disturbing, interesting, scary.

But one does learn something from the article. Again, unfortunately, it turns out EIA's data is based on a formula and not an exact measurement.

Genscape's bottom line:

Year-on-year U.S. gasoline demand was generally stronger between September and November and the record-setting differences between EIA weekly gasoline imports and exports appear to be skewing the EIA Product Supplied Weekly Gasoline data lower.

Gasoline imports and exports are part of the formula used to calculate EIA’s estimate of implied demand. Our Weekly Gasoline Demand Report and Prime Normalized data both show year-on-year increases supported by lower gasoline prices.

Genscape says their data shows that US gasoline demand is higher this year than last year.