Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- US Overtakes Saudi Arabia In Recoverable Reserves -- June 18, 2018

I assume this had something to do with the Bakken revolution.

Under the Hubbert peak oil theory, this was not supposed to happen. The theory, of course, won't die. In fact, I doubt wiki will even update the facts.

The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

Not only are we seeing individual oil wells in the Bakken not following a bell-shaped curve, neither are legacy oil fields. Companies like DNR are using tertiary recovery to rejuvenate old fields.

Now this: "US overtake Saudi Arabia in recoverable reserves." Under Hubbert's peak oil theory this was never supposed to have happened.

From oilprice.com:

The United States has again outstripped Saudi Arabia as the holder of the world’s biggest recoverable oil resources with current technology, largely due to the doubling of fracking operations in the Permian, according to data by research consultancy Rystad Energy.

The U.S. added nearly 50 billion barrels in 2017 and now has an estimated 310 billion barrels of recoverable oil, which are equal to 79 years of U.S. production at the current pace of output, Rystad said.

Apart from the Permian, where more reserves per well are drilled, new areas and formations that have been geologically proved boosted the U.S. recoverable oil resources last year, according to the Norway-based energy consultancy.

“Texas alone now holds more than 100 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 90% of which is from shale or other tight formations, ie. from wells that require hydraulic fracking to produce commercial quantities of oil,” said Rystad Energy.

The “recoverable oil” figures include expected production from future discoveries that Rystad deems likely.

Much more at the link. Including this:

In terms of oil that has already been discovered, Saudi Arabia continues to be the undisputed leader, holding 246 billion barrels of discovered oil, which is 90 billion barrels more than the discovered oil in the United States, according to Rystad Energy.

As far as commercially proved oil reserves—the industry’s closest definition of oil yet to be produced—are concerned, the world’s total such reserves are 388 billion barrels, equal to just 13 years of oil production. OPEC producers hold around 54 percent of the world’s commercially proved reserves.

Bottom line: one can use any number one wants, but right now, that number is pretty big for the United States.

Texas alone holds more than 100 billion bbls of recoverable oil, 90% of which is from shale or other tight formations. It should be noted that "from shale or other tight formations" actually means that most unconventional oil, as I understand it, comes from dolomite seams (sand) trapped between much tighter shale, the actual source rock. As I understand it, the tight shale formations are not yet providing much oil.

On another note, if the Bakken holds a trillion bbls of original oil in place, and primary production gets to 25% recovery, then we are looking at 250 billion bbls of recoverable oil.

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

By the way, many folks can take (some) credit for the Bakken revolution, but if I had to name just one individual it would have to be Harold Hamm. Not only did he play a great role in doing the "dirty" work, actually drilling, he a) had some kind of glimmer / intuition / genius that all those mineral acres he was buying in North Dakota would some day turn out to be a great investment; b) "sold" the idea to fellow oil drillers and, more importantly, to politicians, government officials, investors, etc. I can only imagine the number of times he was told he was wrong about the potential, either in North Dakota or Oklahoma. 

And, then again, he might have been just plain lucky. But I don't think so.