Thursday, May 31, 2018

Nice: US Crude Oil Inventories DECREASE By 4.2 Million Bbls -- EIA -- May 31, 2018

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.
  • immediately after release of data, WTI recovers maybe a bit, but still down significantly 
  • US crude oil inventories: decreased by 4.2 million bbls from previous week; healthy decrease
  • US crude oil inventories: now at 434.5 million bbls, still in "the lower half of the average range for this time of the year" (for newbies: I consider 350 million bbls, maybe 400 million bbls as the "benchmark")
  • both gasoline and distillate fuel production up a bit more than usual (10 million b/d and 5 million b/d, respectively, are my "benchmarks")
  • refineries operating at 93.9% capacity -- much higher than previous few weeks; my "benchmark" for refining capacity, about 93% 
Meanwhile, oilprice.com continues to write the story before the data is published -- and then fill in the blanks once the data is posted. The headline is written, it appears, based on what the writer/headline writer think will result based on the data. Note the screenshot below. Granted, prior to the data being released, WTI was trading below $67 and after the data was released it recovered a bit and began trading above $67, but not by much. If one did not have the data, and simply had the oilprice.com headline, one might get the wrong impression. My impression: the decrease in US crude inventories prevented a further plunge in the price of WTI. Assuming, of course, movers/shakers/insiders/speculators/Goldman Sachs/George Soros/and the rest of the usual suspects didn't already have the data as of last night (which I think they do). Part of the reason for my belief: the EIA folks would be cross-checking with experts outside their own office buildings to see if what they were going to report was in line with what others were seeing. Just a conspiracy hunch.


WTI is down 1.3% after the weekly EIA data came out. I hardly consider that a rebound (from yesterday's closing price). Perhaps a rebound from this morning's opening price.

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