US Natural Gas Exports Hit An All-Time High -- HFIR Energy -- February 27, 2018

Updates

Later, 7:58 p.m. Central Time: this really should be a separate stand-alone post, rather than an update, but I don't want to put two natural gas stories on separate posts so close together, so bear with me.

The original post is a very, very important post -- it's a US-centric post. This "update" is a more global look provided by Platts:

There was a certain air of triumphalism surrounding Anglo-Dutch major Shell’s statement in February that the world’s growing supply of LNG would be “comfortably” absorbed by rising demand in 2018, and that the much anticipated glut would never materialize.

This glut has been much predicted, predicated on the apparent surplus of new LNG capacity coming on stream versus predictions of demand rising, but at a slower rate than supply.

If Shell’s position holds, it is an important development because it could launch a new round of multi-billion dollar investments in LNG capacity, targeting an increasingly tight market between 2022-25.

This would have profound effects on the fortunes of many countries, not least those on LNG standby such as Mozambique and Tanzania, not to mention Qatar’s expansion plans for the giant North Field, Russia’s Arctic LNG 2, and the raft of developers waiting to export the growing volumes of “free” associated gas emanating from the latest shale boom in Texas’s Permian basin.

Of equal importance is that Shell’s statement justifies past spending because higher LNG prices mean that overspent LNG projects in Australia may be back in
the money, while US LNG gets a wide open arbitrage to Asia.

As US LNG production ramps up, producers there will be heavily dependent on this opportunity, which they hope will exist not as a function of below cost-recovery, must-run LNG production in the US — the glut scenario — but high prices in Asia as a result of strong demand growth.

 Much, much more at the link.

 Original Post

The weekly natural gas data will be released tomorrow or Thursday; I believe Thursday. I forget. The weekly petroleum report comes out on Wednesdays, but I think the natural gas data comes out on Thursday. Whatever.

Over at SeekingAlpha in a report dated today, February 27, 2018

• we expect a -84 Bcf change in the storage report for the week ended February 23, 2018
• a storage report of -84 Bcf would be compared to -7 Bcf last year and -118 Bcf for the five-year average
• LNG exports hit an all-time high yesterday
• but LNG demand won't increase from this level until 2019
• the elephant in the room for the rest of 2018 will still be just how fast lower 48 production grows

Also from the report:

After a month of delay, Cove Point LNG is kicking into high gear. Yesterday's reading had US LNG exports coming in at ~4 Bcf/d, the highest in history. Total US gas exports, as a result, pushed passed 8 Bcf/d marking a milestone.

And these milestones are not subtle. Look at these two graphs:

And this graphic released earlier today: