Friday, December 4, 2015 -- Robust Jobs Report; Rate Hike Coming; Participation Rate Jumps

We've talked about this before:

Active rigs:

	12/4/2015	12/04/2014	12/04/2013	12/04/2012	12/04/2011
Active Rigs	64	191	192	181	199

RBN Energy: great update on Corpus Christi.

NRG CEO resigns. Link here. I may come back to this. I have never invested in NRG; never will. But NRG is our electric utility down here in north Texas. From my perspective, their rates are unnecessarily high due to NRG's green energy initiatives. Apparently, the board agrees that the CEO's emphasis on wind energy was ill-advised. From my perspective, no love lost between NRG CEO and me.

Oil prices: Yergin on oil prices. I disagree. I plan to do a post on this but I keep running out of time. Maybe this weekend. Yergin is way smarter than I am, and has much more data available to study, and a whole think tank working for him, so I know I'm wrong, so he's right and I'm wrong but that won't stop me from thinking differently, respectfully disagreeing.

Jobs: rate hike coming. Bloomberg is reporting:

Employers added more jobs than forecast in November, underscoring Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s confidence that the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs.

The 211,000 increase in payrolls followed a 298,000 gain in October that was bigger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The median forecast called for a 200,000 advance. The jobless rate held at a more than seven-year low of 5 percent.

Employee pay increased at a slower pace last month. Average hourly earnings at private employers rose 0.2 percent in November after a 0.4 percent gain. The year-over-year increase in hourly pay compared with a 2.3 percent increase in October.

The labor force participation rate -- the share of working-age people who are employed or looking for work -- rose to 62.5 percent from 62.4 percent.

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Note To The Granddaughters

I'm in a great mood. While cleaning the house I came across a piece of junk mail from Gerber life insurance that I would have received about two years ago. That reminded me. Life insurance is really, really inexpensive for children under the age of 14 years of age.

Yes, I know the arguments "against" life insurance, and the arguments regarding term insurance vs permanent insurance. I have no problem with that. It's an individual choice. But for me, I'm a big "believer" in permanent life insurance. There are two types, whole life and universal life.

I sent a photocopy of the Gerber life insurance ad to my primary insurance company, Thrivent, and they referred me to our local agent here in Grapevine, Bob Pangrac. My daughter and I spent 2 1/2 hours with Bob yesterday. I learned a lot and found the experience very enjoyable. I wasn't looking forward to the appointment but I was pleasantly surprised. I think my daughter also learned a lot.

Bob did a great job explaining the difference between whole life and universal life. 

The most important reason for permanent life insurance, as far as I'm concerned, is "insured insurability." Buying these policies before the grandchildren turn 14 years of age, means that they are insurable through the rest of their lives regardless of their medical condition in the out years. In this particular case, with no medical history or exam, our granddaughters can purchase significantly more insurance nine (9) times later in life. Some of these events are age-related (at age 16, 18, 21, 23, etc) and others are event-related (getting married, having children).

So I got three incredibly great policies for the granddaughters at a monthly premium for all three that will be less than the cost of one sushi dinner. In fact, if I have a martini with my sushi dinner, the total cost of these three policies will be about 75% of the cost of the dinner.

I've had a Thrivent policy for decades and couldn't be happier. I have a similar MONY policy for my wife and am similarly happy. I bought the daughters a Thrivent policy shortly after they were born 30 years ago, and their grandfather bought them a Sons of Norway policy about the same time. Even with multiple policies, I do not feel anyone is overinsured and am very happy with the small premiums. The policies for my wife and myself have been completely paid.

So, I'm in a good mood. It was coincidental that the Wall Street Journal had an article on universal life insurance. Bob talked about that yesterday, completely unaware, obviously, that the WSJ was going to have an article on that exact topic. And it's now new. The WSJ had a similar article back in August.

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Note to the Granddaughters

We attended the largest Christmas Parade in Tarrant County, Texas (Ft Worth) last night, here in Grapevine. It seemed to go on forever and ever. About two hours long. The weather was perfect and that might account for the fact that the parade route was packed; the crowds seemed much bigger than last year. Much bigger. It was like Times Square, NYC, on New Year's Eve. The weather was incredibly mild and absolutely dry. Beautiful night. It was the first time our granddaughter, a flutist, marched in a parade. She loved it.

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Note to the Granddaughters

A month or so ago, Texas Monthly published their list of the top 25 barbecue joints in Texas. There must be a thousand barbecue joints in Texas. There's a group in Dallas -- I believe associated with the Dallas Morning News -- whose mission in life is to visit the best barbecue joints across the state. "They" are serious down here when it comes to barbecue, as serious as they are about football specifically, and sports in general. I say all that because it was a huge surprise that one of the 25 was right here in Grapevine, Meat U Anywhere. (In fact, it's across the street from "my" bicycle shop.) After seeing that article in Texas Monthly, I visited one, about a month ago, and then yesterday I took my wife, and then later took my daughter (after the life insurance policy visit), not to eat, but just to see it in anticipation of her in-laws coming to visit over Christmas. We want them to experience real Texas barbecue. From the linked article:

When Andy Sedino, the managing partner and director of operations for Rudy’s Bar-B-Q’s North Texas franchises, left his post in 2012 to launch his own venture, expectations were rightly high. Not only has Sedino met them, but in the short time Meat U Anywhere has been open, the small restaurant has attracted loyal customers eager to pack the joint, especially on weekends, when it serves prime rib, mammoth beef ribs, and thick-cut turkey slices rubbed liberally with herbs.

Yesterday when my daughter and I stopped by to check the menu at lunchtime, the line stretched out the door. We walked right in, walked to the front of the line, but told folks we were only checking out the menu -- not cutting in line -- everyone was as friendly as could be. No one was upset that we might be trying to "cut in." For a large group, I recommend take-out. Order ahead and bring home pulled pork, brisket, smoked turkey, sausage. Menu here.

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The Sports Page

We got home from the parade in time to see the last quarter of the Green Bay Packer - Detroit Lions game last night. All I can say is "incredible." 

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America Is In Good Shape

Data points:

• gasoline is dirt cheap and will remain dirt cheap for years
• auto sales are hitting records
• the country can afford free college tuition for all -- Hillary
• Playboy Magazine will end nude photos after January/February, 2016, issue; Pamela Anderson will be last nude pictorial
• US Attorney General will prosecute right-wing "hate" speech; apparently more dangerous than jihadists
• despite all that talk about bird flu, there was apparently no shortage of turkeys this Thanksgiving; walking through grocery stores yesterday I was amazed at all the frozen turkeys still available
• open enrollment for ObamaCare is now open through December 15 if one wants coverage by January, 2016
• fighting back, controlling climate change, man is corralling Mother Nature -- not one severe hurricane this past year -- or in the past ten years for that matter
• San Bernardino mass shooting not that big a deal -- NPR:

The shooting in San Bernardino, Calif., was the 355th mass shooting in the U.S. this year — or more than one per day on average so far in 2015 — according to groups monitoring such attacks in recent years.

The San Bernardino case, where 14 people were killed, wasn't the only mass shooting on Wednesday. A 34-year-old woman was killed and three males, ages 17 to 52, were injured by gunfire in Savannah, GA, earlier in the day. Police believe at least two shooters were involved in that incident, but no arrests had yet been made.

• David Letterman won't be on television this Christmas.

Baby, Please Come Home, Darlene Love
Many years ago it was pointed out that the most dangerous place for pedestrians was in pedestrian crosswalks. More pedestrians are hit by motor vehicles in crosswalks than anywhere else. I was reminded of that when reading this Breitbart report: in the US high-profile shootings are more likely to occur in gun-free zones than anywhere else.

WaPo points to a study by Mother Jones that claims that high-profile shootings began increasing in gun-free zones in late 2011/early 2012. The examples Mother Jones provides are the Aurora movie theater, Sandy Hook Elementary, and the D.C. Navy Yard, all of which were gun-free zones.

Other examples of shootings in gun-free zones that could have been cited are Arapahoe High School (December 2013), Fort Hood (April 2014), Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church (June 2015), Chattanooga military offices (July 2015), the Lafayette Grand Theatre (July 2015), and Umpqua Community College (October 1). [And now San Bernardino, Inland Regional Center, another gun-free zone.]

Note the source: not Fox News but Mother Jones. I don't know if Baltimore is a gun-free zone, but homicides in Baltimore stand at 316 today (a dynamic link).