EIA's November Short-Term Outlook -- November 10, 2015

Winter Fuels:

High natural gas inventories and expected warmer weather will lead to lower natural gas prices this winter, which could reduce the heating expenditures for households that heat primarily with natural gas by an average 13% compared to last year.

Crude Oil:

Total oil production from non-OPEC countries is expected to decline next year for the first time since 2008, because of lower oil output from the United States.

Gasoline/Refined Products:

U.S. gasoline demand this year is on track to be the highest since record levels were set in 2007, due in large part to low pump prices and more people working.

Natural Gas:

• U.S. natural gas inventories could reach 4 trillion cubic feet for the first time ever in November, especially if above-normal temperatures reduce home heating demand.

Electricity:

• Milder weather is expected this winter in most of the eastern United States, including the southern states, which will reduce the demand for electric heat and lead to an expected 1.6% decline in retail sales of electricity to the residential sector this winter.
• While natural gas prices are expected to rise next year, power plants are not expected to switch back to coal as a generating fuel because gas prices will still be low compared to recent years.

Renewables:

• Total utility-scale solar power generating capacity in the United States is expected to more than double between the end of 2014 and the end of next year.
• U.S. wind power generating capacity is expected to increase by 14% next year.