Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Bloomberg Reporting North Dakota Crude Oil Production Down 12% -- November 17, 2015

In a Bloomberg/Rigzone article linked earlier today, this was reported:
Oil production in the Permian is forecast by the government to rise 0.6 percent in December to 2.02 million barrels a day, even as drillers have idled 59 percent of the rigs there in the past year. Output in rival shale fields like the Bakken and Eagle Ford has fallen 12% and 25%, respectively, as drillers pulled out after oil prices crashed last year.
From the monthly Director's Cut posting North Dakota crude oil production:
  • September, 2015:  1,162,253 (preliminary)
  • August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
  • July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
  • June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
  • May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
  • April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
  • March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
  • February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
  • January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
  • December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
Doing the math:
  • the all-time high: 1,227,483 bopd, back in December, 2014
  • the most recent figure: 1,162,253 (preliminary)
  • 1,227,483 - 1,162,253 = 65,230 / 1,227,483 = 5.3%
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors, and often make factual and typographical errors, but that 12% decrease reported by Bloomberg seemed on the high side.

For the record, 88% of 1,227,483 = 1,080,185 bopd.

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