Wednesday, July 8, 2015

It looks like the NDIC site might be temporarily down. [11:40 a.m. Pacific Time, NDIC site back up]; [Update, 8:06 a.m.: Yes, here it is. An MDU power outage hit Bismarck --

A power outage in North Dakota's capital on Wednesday brought down computer servers that provide data used to track myriad output statistics across the second-largest U.S. oil producing state.

The outage means the state's daily drilling rig count - a closely watched number that can offer guidance on future oil production - is not available. The count stood at 76 on Tuesday, near where it has been for several weeks.

Global warming: it's a religion -- Nobel-winning physicist. 

Giaever ridiculed Obama for stating that “no challenge poses a greater threat to future generations than climate change.” The physicist called it a “ridiculous statement” and that Obama “gets bad advice” when it comes to global warming.

“I say this to Obama: Excuse me, Mr. President, but you’re wrong. Dead wrong,” Giaever said.

Giaever was a professor at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute’s School of Engineering and School of Science and received the Nobel Prize for physics for his work on quantum tunneling. Giaever said he was “horrified” about the science surrounding global warming when he conducted research on the subject in 2012.

Ironically, just four years earlier he signed a letter with more than 70 other Nobel winners saying the “country urgently needs a visionary leader” and that “Senator Barack Obama is such a leader, and we urge you to join us in supporting him.”

But by 2011,  Giaever left the American Physical Society because it officially stated that “the evidence is incontrovertible … [g]lobal warming is occurring.” The Society also pushed for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Global warming really has become a new religion,” Giaever said. “Because you cannot discuss it. It’s not proper. It is like the Catholic Church.

"There’s been no global warming for the last 17 years or so (based on satellite records), weather hasn’t gotten more extreme and that global temperature has only slightly risen — and that’s based on data being “fiddled” with by scientists."

Yes, Starbucks here in San Pedro raised the price of a tall ("small") black coffee from $1.75 to $1.95. That would mean the $1.85 coffee in Grapevine has gone up to $2.10.

Here in southern Californa, the city of Anahiem announced a decision to consider a tax on tickets for theme parks. Disneyland negotiated a 30-year moratorium on any tax on the park; in return Disneyland promises a $1 billion program to upgrade the parks, build a multi-story parking garage, and improve surrounding streets to improve traffic flow.

Key paragraph in this Business Insiders story from Reuters' Mike Kemp:

If U.S. shale drillers — the world's new 'swing' producers — can still turn a profit at below $60 a barrel, then the fall in long-dated oil prices may be rational. If not, as some bullish market analysts worry, then lower prices could be choking off new supplies the world may need as soon as next year.

Active rigs:

	7/8/2015	07/08/2014	07/08/2013	07/08/2012	07/08/2011
Active Rigs	75	191	186	213	170

RBN Energy: Crude Inland Barge Traffic Tumbles As Differentials Narrow.

Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that inland barge movements between the U.S. Midwest and the Gulf Coast increased 10 fold between January 2011 and October 2013 to nearly 160 Mb/d in response to soaring crude production and pipeline congestion.

Since then barge traffic on the Mississippi River (the main waterway between the two regions) plunged 80% to 27 Mb/d in April 2015 – the latest month reported.

Today we explain why.

We last reported on the inland barge market in March 2014 as part of a blog series on the Jones Act. According to Kirby Corporation – the largest owner – there are 3,705 inland tank barges in the U.S. These barges move crude oil, condensate, refined products, NGLs and petrochemicals along 12,000 miles of navigable inland waters – mostly along the Mississippi River system but a growing number along the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) between Corpus Christi and Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast refineries. The inland barge market is distinct from the coastal barge market that involves larger ocean going articulated barges (ATB) with over 140 MBbl cargoes. Inland barges are smaller – ranging in size from 10 MBbl to 30 MBbl.

We described these vessels in Part 1 of our “Good Year For the Barges” series. The smaller 10 MBbl barges are more commonly used in the upper Mississippi and Illinois River where the water draft (depth) is shallower. Barges are normally chartered-out as “unit tows” consisting of two to three barges and a towboat, under term contracts for 1-5 years or for shorter terms in the spot market. Inland barges are subject to the terms of the 1920 Merchant Marine Act – known by the industry as the Jones Act (see The Sea and Mr. Jones). The Jones Act is a federal statute requiring that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried in U.S.-flag ships, constructed in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents. Because of the regulations, operating expenses are higher for Jones Act vessels (as much as 2.7 times non-flag alternatives according to a U.S. Maritime Administration (MORAD) study in 2011). Subscribers to RBN’s Backstage Pass service can download a copy of the 2014 “Rock The Boat” Drill Down Report that describes the impact of the Jones Act on the crude oil market.

Brits cut corporate tax. Tweeting now:

UK Budget: Benefit cap to fall from £26,000 to £23,000 in London and £20,000 in the rest of the country; inheritance tax threshold to rise to £1 million; corporation tax to be cut to 18% by 2020, chancellor announces - @BBCBreaking