The Dow is finally back over 18,000. I still maintain, that starting back in late 2014, this is a most remarkable time for young investors (I define "young investors" as those with a 20-year investment horizon; my dad at 73 was a "young investor"; he continues to invest today, at age 93). I don't understand the market and with all the headwinds, for the market to be back up over 18,000 before "sell in May, go away" (which by the way, apparently is now, "sell in June, before the swoon") is very interesting.
The world keeps muddling through "predicted disasters."
April 9, yesterday, was the day Greece was going to run out of cash. April 9th came and went. No headlines today regarding Greece, at least none that I could find.
The Ukraine? Apparently there is a cease-fire; no doubt giving the parties time to re-load, re-arm, and re-organize.
Putin's big problem: the ruble is getting stronger. Too strong; it's impacting his balance of trade payments.
The ObamaIran deal? The Ayatollah says it's DOA but we know otherwise.
Yemen will implode, but is that news?
So, we got through another week. Psychologically we may be through the worse -- at least for the next 90 days.
By the way, if you have 36 hours of free time, and looking for something to speed-read, I can't think of a better book to recommend, if interested in this sort of stuff: David
I was hoping for some good news at the end of the book, or at least a chapter on how David Stockman sees the demise of the US economy play out -- but it ends with this two-sentence paragraph:
The interim winners from this ordeal will be the gangs of crony capitalism and the opulent 1 percent who thrive off the central bank's money printing. But in the end sundown will descend upon the entire nation -- even on the 1 percent.He does have a concluding chapter, "Another Road That Could Be Taken" in which he lists thirteen (13) "crucial steps" to correct course, but he admits that these steps "would never be adopted in today's regime of money politics, fast money speculation, and Keynesian economics, but they can be listed. They are compelling."
The "crucial steps" include:
- abolish deposit insurance
- no incumbent of federal office could stand for re-election
- require each two-year congress to balance the budget
- abolish social insurance, bailouts, and economic subsidies
- eliminate ten major federal agencies and departments
- erect a sturdy cash-based means-tested safety net and abolish the minimum wage
- impose a 30-percent wealth tax
- repeal the 16th amendment; replace it with a uniform tax on domestic consumption at the point of sale
The interim winners from this ordeal will be the gangs of crony capitalism and the opulent 1 percent who thrive off the central bank's money printing. But in the end sundown will descend upon the entire nation -- even on the 1 percent.Based on what I see in the DFW metroplex, it appears the excesses of the 1 percent are trickling down to at least the top 15%. "Trickle-down economics" does not appear in the index. Incredibly, "supply-side economics" is also not mentioned in the index.
There seems to be a chapter missing from the book. Stockman runs through US economic history from FDR to Nixon pretty good, and some on Jimmy Carter, but then fast forwards to Barack Obama. The index has half a dozen pages but no "section" on Ronald Reagan/David Stockman whereas one can find full chapter-equivalents on any of the other presidents/economic advisers.
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Does Stockman's Book Square With What Others Are Thinking
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the top 20 economics in 2030 will be (as printed by Bloomberg):
- European growth comes to a standstill for all practical purposes
- though small, India's economy surges
- US and China's economies surge
- for all that talk about China's economy, US remains #1
- other than the US, China, and India, there is essentially no growth
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