Update On EVs

Updates

May 29, 2014: Toyota may be getting out of the battery business. 24/7 Wall Street is reporting:

But not everyone considers a battery-operated automotive future to be a done deal. And when I say “not everyone,” I’m not just talking about cranks – I’m talking about some big names.

Like Toyota.

Few companies know more about battery-powered cars than Toyota. The company’s Prius is far and away the world’s best-selling hybrid. Toyota has built over 6 million hybrids to date. And the Japanese automaker is a big investor in Tesla.

Toyota has spent 20 years trying to create a viable mass-market battery-electric vehicle.  But lately, the company has hinted that it has given up the effort.

Toyota North America chief Jim Lentz recently told Automotive News that the company doesn’t see battery-electric vehicles as a viable mass-market proposition.

Lentz said the technology is only viable in “a select way, in short range vehicles that take you that extra mile, from the office to the train, or home to the train, as well as being used on large campuses.”

For a primary vehicle intended for longer-range travel, Toyota feels there are better alternatives, like hybrids. And like fuel cells, the technology the company is investing heavily in now.

May 29, 2014: April, 2014, plug-in electric vehicle sales report card. 

• For the year, Chevrolet has now sold 5,154 plug-ins, which is down 7.1% from 2013 when 5,550 were moved.
• For April 2,088 LEAFs were sold, a 7.8% improvement over last year when 1,936 were moved off dealer lots.
• This result comes hot on the heels of March’s impressive result as Nissan set an almost all-time monthly best for the LEAF with 2,507 sold…just 22 short of the record set previously in December. 
• Cadillac ELR:

There is a story brewing here and it goes something like this: “There is a lot of darn inventory and the car is not selling.”

With almost 2,000 ELRs sitting on lots ready to be bought, just 61 were sold.  (Don’t do the “selling days math”, it is ugly).

This “Oh hello inventory!” story has now been in play since February as massive amounts (relatively speaking) of ELRs started to arrive at the 60% of dealers that didn’t “opt out” of selling the plug-in Cadillac for fear of low demand throughout the month. 

In March just 81 ELRs were sold.Thankfully, this inventory level for the ELR should only go down from here as GM has reportedly wound down full scale production of the luxury plug-in coupe. It appears that the heady $75,995 price tag is just too much to expect for the plug-in Caddy, and we suspect that big reductions will be needed in the future to move product; although we do like the look of their $699/month lease deal a lot better than the big MSRP headline number.

Original Post 

Flashback: in the showroom -- 

Prospective buyer: wow, nice looking car? How far can you drive on a full charge?

Salesman: 38 miles.

Prospective buyer: 38 miles/gallon?

Salesman: No, a total of 38 miles per full electric charge.

Prospective buyer: Say what?

Salesman: Well, that is an increase from 35 miles the previous year?

Prospective buyer: you mean from 2013?

Salesman: no, the 2013 model increased its range from 35 to 38 miles from the year before. The model you are looking at stayed the same. No improvements. But the tax breaks are better. And, hey, we will send a technician out to your house and install $2,000 worth of charging equipment in your garage.

Prospective buyer: I don't have a garage; I live in a high rise. By the way, are they still catching on fire? You know, I would never want to put a Volt in my garage. If I had one.

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I was reminded of that August 6, 2013, post after Don sent me the following article. Investor's Business Daily is reporting:

Today's electric vehicle driving ranges, recharge times and high purchase prices are stumbling blocks for people who might otherwise buy an EV, a new study says.

While high-end Tesla Motors (TSLA) is selling all the plug-in Model S sedans it can make, expected to be more than 35,000 this year worldwide, General Motors and Nissan have had to discount sale prices and leases to move the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid and Nissan Leaf plug-in EV. In the U.S., GM sold only 3,606 Volts in Q1, while Nissan sold just 5,184, though that was a 46% jump for the Leaf from the year-earlier quarter.

Electric vehicle sales have largely failed to meet manufacturers' sales expectations because their capabilities and features fall short of customer expectations, research firm TechnoMetrica concludes, but it says the outlook for the EV market is improving.

Three comments/questions:

• how long have "we" been pushing EVs? Has it been 20 years? A: 24 years. See below.
• the Tesla? for the ultra-rich, as a show-vehicle, and to feel good; not mass market by any means
• remember GM's goal: 45,000 Volts/year?

The answer to that first question, from wiki:

In January 1990, General Motors' President introduced its EV concept two-seater, the "Impact", at the Los Angeles Auto Show. That September, the California Air Resources Board mandated major-automaker sales of EVs, in phases starting in 1998. From 1996 to 1998 GM produced 1117 EV1s, 800 of which were made available through three-year leases.

For at least thirteen families, it would have been nice had GM spent as much time fixing an ignition switch (the fix: $1.00) as they did on the Volt. 

The last question: does Algore drive an EV? Ever?

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The Fed Vs Obama

I am so happy to have read Sylvia Nasar's book on economics. I really feel I have a better understanding of macroeconomics. There's a chapter on FDR and social security. The worst thing that a government can do during a depression/recession is to impose a big new tax, and that's exactly what FDR/social security did. The author's contention (based on experts) is that the recession/depression was extended several years longer in the US than in Europe because of social security coming on-line. Very interesting.

It seems with ObamaCare we are repeating that very history. Social Security was mandated, automatic withholding, no chance of evasion, no delay. Perhaps the reason the US did not experience a double-dip recession due to ObamaCare was because it really was such a failure on initial execution. Obama and the nation might have dodged a silver bullet only because his web page designers were so inept, and the whole program was delayed indefinitely -- in reality, if not "on paper."