ObamaCare Will Not Be Repealed

Don sent me a couple of links to ObamaCare articles this morning.

We haven't seen much on ObamaCare in the mainstream media this past month: the cold weather, the Target breach, and the NSA have taken up all the ink.

As those stories fade, the talk will return to ObamaCare. By July/August of this year, ObamaCare will smother all other news stories, and in October, just before the election, insurance companies will set the "new" premiums for 2015.

First the two links that Don sent me:

• Forbes is reporting: of those who did not enroll, 52% said they did not enroll because they could not afford ObamaCare. Only a third said they did not sign up because of technical reasons.
• The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the majority of those who signed up for ObamaCare were previously insured elsewhere. For the most part, the majority of those who signed up were the ones who had their policies canceled under ObamaCare (one big shell game, in other words).

The point of the second story is this: the whole purpose of ObamaCare was to capture the previously uninsured (the 30 million uninsured Americans) -- that did not happen (and won't happen).

The point of the first story is that the majority of folks are not enrolling in ObamaCare because they cannot afford the premiums, not because of technical issues. In six months there will be a new poll out that shows among the enrolled folks who could "afford" the premiums, the vast majority will find they cannot afford the annaul $12,000 deductible and will have dropped their plans.

After getting the links from Don, I responded. The following is my response. It is not ready for prime time, but seldom is anything on the blog ready for prime time. But these are my unedited thoughts about how I think ObamaCare will play out.

I am posting this for the archives. I assume my position will a) be proved wrong over time; and, b) will evolve as new data becomes available, but I bet I'm not too far off the mark.

Based on the Forbes article in which the journalist suggests ObamaCare will be repealed, here's my prediction:

All that talk about "repealing" Obamacare -- it can't happen. ObamaCare has woven itself into all sectors of the economy. The best that can be done is to nibble around the edges, modifying the existing bill.

Hillary, Pelosi, and Co. wanted two things: a) no pre-existing clauses; and, b) no caps on coverage. Those two benefits cannot be removed. That's exactly what Tricare -- military medicine has: anyone who is part of the military (spouses and children) have the same insurance regardless of pre-existing medical conditions; and there is no cap to total expenses, once the deductible is paid.

Congress will modify ObamaCare to appease their constituencies; the annual deductibles will be lowered to $6,000 or less; the premiums will be capped; and the insurers will be compensated for their losses.

The only piece that might be interpreted as a repeal of ObamaCare is when Congress permits folks to buy insurance policies that don't meet ObamaCare requirements. President Obama has already made this possible for the majority of those affected by the individual mandate; he did this using a) his pen; and, b) an executive order.

Health insurers will then be like the utilities with two "entities": a) the regulated side of the house (what we call ObamaCare now); and, b) the unregulated side of the house (what will be called ObamaCare Lite. Or ObamaCare Elite since it will be bought by the elite.

The regulated side will simply be "pass-through" entities with the US government (taxpayers) making up the difference between which the insurers collect from premium payers and the total cost of providing ObamaCare to those who buy from the regulated side of the market.

The insurers will be guaranteed a small profit on the regulated side, and no restrictions on profit on the unregulated side.