Tea Leaves: Regardless of What Ben Says Today, A Case Can Be Made For MORE Stimulus; A LOT More

Updates

Later, 3:52 pm:  I was certainly in the minority, but one other talking head did agree: a case can be made for increased stimulus. Come next spring, when Janet Yellen is chairman, I wouldn't be surprised to hear "Krugman" talk.

Original Post

 
The president's polls are deteriorating.

Folks have to be frustrated that the unemployment/employment numbers are not moving faster.

Folks have noted that we are not getting closer to the Fed's inflation target. Inflation is not a short-term concern.

If inflation is not a worry, and unemployment/employment is still not improving, and one's polls are deteriorating, what does a president do with regard to the Fed chairman?

Appoint someone more hawkish or more dovish that Ben with regard to stimulus?

The campaign for 2016 is about to begin (some have said it has started, including Drudge). 

Are there hints that the President is exasperated with the inertia of the employment/unemployment numbers? Lots of talk today that when the President said "Ben's time is up" was not the President's finest moment. Some suggested that he was tired. Maybe. It's been my impression/experience that someone who is physically or mentally exhausted is more likely to speak without the need for listeners to parse what was said. [In other words: the President said exactly what he felt -- it's time for Ben to go.]

Two trivial notes: one talking head said that the president likes to appoint women to important positions, but there have been "complaints" that he has few women in his cabinet. [I don't necessarily agree: two of the most important cabinet positions in 2013 -- O'BamaCare and Homeland Security -- are both held by women.]

Oh, one more thing: perhaps the most influential East Coast economist is Paul Krugman who has argued often that there was not enough stimulus.

Three things are likely to happen over the next six months:

1) Ben stays the course, and the economy goes nowhere
2) Ben talks tapering; the economy goes nowhere, and the market goes down
3) Ben actually tapers: the economy goes nowhere, and the market really goes down

I just don't see Ben increasing the stimulus between now and January, 2014

I know very little about Ms Yellen, but I doubt I am not too far off the mark when I picture her somewhere between Krugman and Bernanke with thoughts on stimulus. Pick the one data point that does not belong with the other three:

a) Janet Yellen
b) San Francisco
c) Berkeley
d) Republican

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It's a given that Ms Yellen will be the next Fed chairman.