Preview Of This Week's Jobs Numbers -- Not Looking Good

Updates

Later, 1:49 pm: the labor market is even worse than you think.

The ADP National Employment Report revealed Wednesday that private employers hired 158,000 workers in March -- the smallest gain in five months and below economists' forecasts of around 200,000.

Many of these new jobs are in low-paying sectors such as retail, food services and health care. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in February that retailers hired 252,000 new workers over the past 12 months and the industry overall has recovered 723,000 jobs since reaching a low in December 2009. In comparison, the construction industry has added just 349,000 new jobs since reaching its employment low in January 2011.

The U.S. economy overall has increased payrolls by 355,000 since the beginning of the year and more than 1.8 million in 2012. This Friday the BLS will give its latest snapshot of the domestic labor market. Economists are expecting an average gain of 200,000 jobs in March.

This has nothing to do with the Obama presidency. This is simply the structural changes in the job market. Automation continues to kick in. Employers will look at the low-hanging fruit first. It did not matter if an employer automated a low-paying job or not, but with an additional $3,000/employee for ObamaCare, it will be worth their while to automate those positions also. Look for companies like McDonald's go to customer-self-ordering at a kiosk just before getting to the cashier.

Original Post

CNBC is reporting: oh-oh.

Private-sector job creation was considerably less than expected in March, indicating that the labor market's improvements could begin stalling.

A joint report Wednesday from ADP and Moody's Analytics showed 158,000 new positions, well below economist expectations of 200,000.

The report serves as a precursor to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, so the miss could cause economists to lower their projections.

The spin:

"I'm very optimistic about the economy but I think the next six months are going to be pretty tricky and we're going to see that in the job market," Moody's economist Mark Zandi told CNBC. "So I think we actually will see weaker jobs numbers in the next few months." 

I am optimistic about the economy also, but for me it's wishful thinking. For an economist, I would assume, one needs more than that.

Although the article mentions that construction jobs following Hurricane Sandy are disappearing, the article, incredibly, does not mention "sequester." That's where we're going to see some job losses, and they won't be temporary.

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By the way, the AP will no longer use the phrase "illegal immigrant." -- AP

The AP will now refer to them as "undocumented Democrats." -- Jay Leno

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An Inconvenient Truth

US poverty level at highest since the 1960s -- I always said President Obama was in over his head when he was elected the first time; didn't get any better with time. One can start with all the jobs lost in the energy industry. Off-shore exploration and production ground to a half in 2010. The Keystone XL, which would have provides tens of thousands of jobs, was killed by the President, not once, but twice, and he may get the opportunity to do it again. And as noted in earlier stories, even if it is approved now, it may be too little too late. Sequester-related job losses? Remember, it was the president who first proposed the sequester. Congress called his bluff on it but it was his idea. In over his head. ObamaCare -- that's where we're going to see huge job losses as a result. 

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