How Good Is the Bakken? How Much Better Is It Getting?

I've just updated Blue Buttes oil field, one of the older fields in the Williston Basin. When you click on the update, notice the the change in IPs over the past two or three years.

Then look at some of the cumulative production figures.

• 20591, 2,656, Helis, Jones 4-15/22H, t4/12; cum 48K 4/12: 48,000 bbls by the end of the month in which it was completed
• 18973, 2,579, Helis, State 1-16/21H, t10/10; cum 308K 4/12;  over 300,000 bbls since it was completed less than two years ago

Do you think Helis has cracked the code for completing Bakken wells in Blue Buttes?

And, then how about this string of Hess wells?

• 18013, 842, BR, Mathistad 2-35H, t7/09; cum 124K 4/12;
• 18053, 467, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-1, t10/09; cum 144K 4/12;
• 18104, 1,113, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-1, t11/09; cum 250K 4/12;
• 18105, 860, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-1, t2/10; cum 201K 4/12;
• 18218, 615, Hess, BB-Federal-151-95-0817H-1, cum 199K 4/12;
• 18250, 1,230, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-1, t5/10; cum 160K 4/12;
• 18271, 547, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-1, t1/11; cum 106K 4/12; 

Those wells fairly old by "Bakken boom" standards. And some of these wells are going to keep producing for 30 years -- albeit at a declining rate. I think this something a lot of folks keep forgetting: once production comes on line, day-in, and day-out, these wells are putting oil into the pipelines.

Rationally, "we" know that CLR says the EURs of their wells will average 603,000 bbls for the better Bakken, but one doesn't really get a feeling for what that means until one sees specific wells that have produced 300,000 bbls in 18 months, or a string of wells that will probably all come close to hitting 300,000 bbls in 36 months with some exceptions. And, again, these are "older" wells.

Look at the change in IPs from "then" (two years ago) to now.