Why Gasoline Demand Is Decreasing in the US (But Will Be Increasing in China)

Link here to Rigzone.com.

The U.S. Census Bureau confirms that in 2009 there were 75 million or 35 percent of U.S. drivers between the ages of 45 and 65 years. Cutting off the group at age 55, we see that 33 million are in the home stretch towards retirement. Since miles driven decrease dramatically post retirement, our aging population (that as a group will create the most retirees we will see in our lifetime) is having an impact on gasoline demand.

We will illustrate the basic change underway using "crude" math to summarize our findings. A total of 33 million (drivers between ages 55 and 64 years) implies 3.3 million drivers will hit retirement age in the next 12 months. Conversely, over the past 15 years the U.S. driving rolls have averaged a gain of 2.3 million drivers per year. So, a net 1 million drivers, who on average travel 6,000 miles fewer during a year, points to an average trend of 6 billion fewer miles driven than the preceding year. We expect this amount of loss per year to continue through 2021.

And China's population averages much less in age than the US.