Idle Ramblings -- Friday, December 23, 2011 -- Christmas Eve Eve

Some items may not be related to the Bakken. Proceed at your own risk.

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I see the price of oil continues to melt up toward $100.

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I haven't seen much analysis of this news story:

Refiners in Europe will shut more crude distillation capacity in the first quarter than in the last five years as units are halted for maintenance and profit margins drop, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

At least 295,000 barrels of crude a day will be idled, the Bloomberg data show. That compares with the five-year average of 280,000 barrels, according to Sheenal Khimasia, an analyst at Facts Global Energy Inc. in London. Another 300,000 barrels daily may be curtailed because of falling demand and low profits, she said.

Half of the processing units at Total SA (FP)’s La Mede refinery in the south of France will close from Jan. 11 to March 21.

Exxon Mobil plans to shut some plants at its Gravenchon facility in March for about four weeks.

Eni SpA's Venice plant in Italy would be halted on Nov. 1 for six months.

I would assume refineries in the US will be called upon to make up the difference. 

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Everybody in Boston is still talking about the warmest winter they've seen in some time. No one is complaining about global warming. The two, of course, are unrelated. One is weather. One is climate. 

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The summary for the NDIC January, 2012, dockets have been posted.


Several things jump out when you scan through the summary: the activity is moving to McKenzie County. And the norm is 7 wells per 1280-acre spacing.  Lots could be written; maybe more later.
 

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Speaking of the NDIC dockets, someone noted that Whiting was requesting to drill a horizontal targeting the Red River formation and wondering if this had been done before. The full story is presented at the sidebar at the right: scroll to "Formations" and then click on "Red River."

Hundreds (?) of horizontal wells (as many as 5 wells per section) have been drilled into the Red River, particularly in southwestern North Dakota.  Eric Fox, earlier this year, wrote:

Although the Red River formation is relatively unknown to investors, the play was discovered in 1967 and first developed with vertical wells. In 1994, horizontal drilling was used to develop the Red River B play. While not many operators are active in the Red River formation, the play still accounted for approximately 10.5% of total oil production in North Dakota in 2010.

Specifically, case 16605:

Application of Whiting Oil & Gas Corp., to establish a 960-acre drilling or spacing unit consisting of all of Section 10 and the N/2 of Section 15, T.141N., R.105W., Golden Valley County, ND, for the purpose of drilling a horizontal well in the Red River Formation, and such other relief as is appropriate.

 This area is pretty void of activity. The few wells/permitted locations are these:

• 19917, 273, Whiting, Maus 23-22, wildcat, "directional" but on the GIS map seen as a vertical,
• 19921, conf, Whiting, Brookhart 11-14, wildcat,
• 20043, conf, Whiting, Peplinski 34-9, wildcat,
• 20969, conf, Whiting, Nistler 21-25H, wildcat, 

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Other than that, a quiet day.

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I always get a kick out of listening to sports announcers doing all they can to keep the audience on "their" football game when the score is 42 - 3 and there's less than 6 minutes to play. Those calling the play-by-play keep coming up with scenarios in which the losing team could stage a comeback: a kick-off return, followed by a recovered on-side kick, followed by a punt return touchdown, and so on.

That random thought crossed my mind while reading the CNNMoney story on the Keystone XL. Part of the tax extension deal was to require the president make a decision on the Keystone XL within 60 days. Political and business talk radio and talk television will milk this political theater for all its worth.


CNNMoney has it exactly right. Obama has three choices: a) approve it; b) deny it; c) kick the can down the road until after the 2012 election. Wow, I wonder what the president will do?

Both sides and all the talk shows will milk it for all they can. It will result in political contributions and ad dollars. As with the payroll extension which amounted to 2% for 2 months (a pizza night out), analysts were able to keep folks on edge waiting to see how this would play out. Anyone who thought that the year would end with taxes going up .... well ... what can I say ... sounds like a Netflix commercial ...

So, just as we know the outcome of an NFL game at 42 - 3 with less than 6 minutes to play, and chuckle listening to the play-by-play announcers trying to make the game seem exciting, we will see the political equivalent in February, 2012.

The president's speech is easy: "60 days is not enough time to evaluate such an important decision ... we love Canada, our closest ally ... and we need/want their oil .... but 60 days not enough time ... so, I will direct the State Department to let Canada know we need/want their oil ... but we need to have TransCanada resubmit their request so we evaluate a route that doesn't affect the MacGuffin the aquifer."

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Speaking of the 2% for 2 months (a pizza night out), ... square the $40 tax deduction, and the 99-week unemployment benefits and the $180 Nike Air Jordan Retro XI sneakers craze.  I can but I won't.