The number of Americans filing for jobless aid rose to an eight-month high last week and productivity growth slowed in the first quarter, clouding the outlook for an economy that is struggling to gain speed.
While the surprise jump in initial claims for unemployment benefits was attributed to factors ranging from spring break layoffs to the introduction of an emergency benefits program, economists said it corroborated reports this week indicating a loss of momentum in job creation.Although the economists do concede that the increase in jobless claims cannot be ascribed to special circumstances only, they do say that part of the rise had to do with spring break.
I do believe there is "spring break" every year. Surprise indeed.
From Carpe Diem Blog
ReplyDeletehttp://mjperry.blogspot.com/
Scott Grannis has a post today about the spike in weekly jobless claims, which could likely be the result of a faulty seasonal adjustment factor. Looking at other measures of jobless claims, including continued claims displayed in the graph above, the trend is still downward, suggesting a gradually improving labor market. Scott provides a graph showing ongoing declines also in the total claims and emergency claims, and concludes that "there has been no sudden deterioration in the real world."
Yup.
ReplyDeleteAs JRR Tolkien said: we all have our "myths."
I hope you and Scott Grannis are correct.
My understanding is that the number is correct; it was the prediction that was possibly incorrect due to a "faulty seasonal adjustment factor."
As I noted in the blog, apparently spring break came as a surprise to those who make a career out of studying economic data. College students know all the dates of spring break four years in advance.
It's my understanding that this is the fourth week in a row that the rate has been over 400,000 -- the important milestone that suggests things are improving.
It's also my understanding that it will take years for US to return to "normal" employment/unemployment numbers at the rate we are going. History suggests we will never get back to pre-recession levels.