July 17, 2017: PennEnergy story here.
July 15, 2017: NDIC says the reason for all the DUCs -- oil producers are drilling Bakken wels faster than they can bring them in due to a shortage of experienced workers. One wonders if the Permian is attracting the workers? But this wouldn't explain the 1500 shut-in wells, I wouldn't think.
Also, NDIC says it will be another month before the impact of the DAPL will be known. The most recent data (May, 2017, data) shows that CBR accounted for about one-fourth of North Dakota oil, but in June that percentage should drop as DAPL data starts showing up. How much does transportation cost ND operators? WTI: $46/bbl; Bakken sweet oil: $35. Ouch. Once DAPL hits its stride, NDIC sees the spread closer to $6 or $7. See discussion regarding this pricing at the link.
Usual disclaimer: done quickly; assume factual and/or typographical errors; if this information is important to you, go to the source.
Note the jump in "inactive wells" -- now, over 1,500 -- and this does not count the 850 DUCs. Over 1,500 completed and producing wells have been taken off-line for various reasons. Many of them are taken off-line simply because neighboring wells are being fracked. Had these 1,500 wells remained on-line one could imagine that North Dakota would have had another record-breaking crude oil production number. Which brings us, once again, to the blog's theme song, it's only make believe ...
From The Director's Cut
May, 2017, Data
- May, 2017: 1,040,131 bopd
- April, 2017: 1,050,476 bopd
- Delta: -0.98% or - 10,345 (per day, that amounts to 344 bopd; insignificant)
- May, 2017: 13,876
- April, 2017: 13,716
- Delta: -+160 wells or 1.2%
- May, 2017: 100 (huge jump)
- April, 2017: 58
- today: $35.25
- June: $34.72
- May: $37.85
- April: $39.76
- today: 58
- June: 55
- May: 50
- waiting on completion: 830; unchanged from the end of April to the end of May
- estimated inactive well count: 1,511; up 45 from the end of April to the end of May
- including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate (major change in verbiage)
- statewide: 90%
- FBIR: 84%
- goal: 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%
- comment: this is one of the bigger deltas between "statewide" and "FBIR" that I've seen in a long time