Friday, July 14, 2017

Director's Cut Is Out -- May, 2017, Data


July 17, 2017: PennEnergy story here

July 15, 2017: NDIC says the reason for all the DUCs -- oil producers are drilling Bakken wels faster than they can bring them in due to a shortage of experienced workers. One wonders if the Permian is attracting the workers? But this wouldn't explain the 1500 shut-in wells, I wouldn't think.

Also, NDIC says it will be another month before the impact of the DAPL will be known. The most recent data (May, 2017, data) shows that CBR accounted for about one-fourth of North Dakota oil, but in June that percentage should drop as DAPL data starts showing up. How much does transportation cost ND operators? WTI: $46/bbl; Bakken sweet oil: $35. Ouch. Once DAPL hits its stride, NDIC sees the spread closer to $6 or $7. See discussion regarding this pricing at the link.

Original Post
Link here.

Usual disclaimer: done quickly; assume factual and/or typographical errors; if this information is important to you, go to the source.

Note the jump in "inactive wells" -- now, over 1,500 -- and this does not count the 850 DUCs. Over 1,500 completed and producing wells have been taken off-line for various reasons. Many of them are taken off-line simply because neighboring wells are being fracked. Had these 1,500 wells remained on-line one could imagine that North Dakota would have had another record-breaking crude oil production number. Which brings us, once again, to the blog's theme song, it's only make believe ...

It's Only Make Believe, Conway Twitty

From The Director's Cut
May, 2017, Data

Oil production
  • May, 2017: 1,040,131 bopd
  • April, 2017: 1,050,476 bopd
  • Delta: -0.98% or - 10,345 (per day, that amounts to 344 bopd; insignificant)
Producing wells:
  • May, 2017: 13,876
  • April, 2017: 13,716
  • Delta: -+160 wells or 1.2%
  • May, 2017: 100 (huge jump)
  • April, 2017: 58
Oil price:
  • today: $35.25
  • June: $34.72
  • May: $37.85
  • April: $39.76
Rig count:
  • today: 58
  • June: 55
  • May: 50
  • April:50
Wells not producing:
  • waiting on completion: 830; unchanged from the end of April to the end of May
  • estimated inactive well count: 1,511; up 45 from the end of April to the end of May
Takeaway capacity:
  • including CBR to coastal refineries is more than adequate (major change in verbiage)
Natural gas capture:
  • statewide: 90%
  • FBIR: 84%
  • goal: 88% through October 31, 2020; then 91%
  • comment: this is one of the bigger deltas between "statewide" and "FBIR" that I've seen in a long time

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