WTI; $66.48. After the EIA data was released, WTI, no change, at $66.43.
API: yesterday -- a 7.7 million bbl draw. Link here.
The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.7 million barrels for the week ended April 30, 2021.
The data also reportedly showed gasoline stockpiles down by 5.3 million barrels, while distillate inventories declined by nearly 3.5 million barrels.
Crude stocks at the Cushing, OK, storage hub, meanwhile, edged up by 548,000 barrels for the week.
Inventory data from the Energy Information Administration will be released today (May 5,2021).
On average, the EIA is expected to show crude inventories down by 3.9 million barrels, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Platts. It also forecast supply declines of 500,000 barrels for gasoline and 1.6 million barrels for distillates.
Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.
- US crude oil in storage: 485.1 million bbls.
- US crude oil in storage decreased by a phenomenal, whopping, indescribable 8.0 million bbls
- refiners are operating at 86.5% -- where we've been for quite some time
- imports averaged 5.5 million bopd, a decrease of 1.2 million bopd from the previous week.
- imports are averaging about 5.8 million bopd, a significant 7.8% more than the same four-week period last week
- distillate fuel inventories decreased by almost 3 million bbls; distillates are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year;
- total motor gasoline increased a bit but gasoline inventories are still about 2% below the five-year average
- jet fuel product supplied was up 101% compared with four-week period last year
From social media, link here:
ooooof .... disappointing gasoline product supplied numbers; huge imports at 1.02 mbpd. Spreads, cracks falling apart on this report. By the way, crude exports way up at 4.12 million bpd; had been averaging about 2.5 million bpd.
Crude oil imports. I don't know if it means anything, but as a percentage basis, year-over-year, it appears that the US has been importing a larger amount of crude oil over the past few weeks compared to earlier this year. From week 41 to week 46, the last column, the four-week period, year-over-year, was generally negative, and often double digits. Recently, from week 57 on, the percentage has increased, including a double-digit jump last week.
Crude Oil Imports |
|
|
|
|
Week (week-over-week) |
Date of Report |
Raw Data, millions of bbls |
Change (millions of bbls) |
Four-week period comparison |
Week 41 |
December 23, 2020 |
5.6 |
0.140 |
-12.90% |
Week 42 |
December 30, 2020 |
5.3 |
-0.238 |
-14.40% |
Week 43 |
January 6, 2021 |
5.4 |
0.043 |
-18.10% |
Week 44 |
January 13, 2021 |
6.2 |
0.900 |
14.90% |
Week 45 |
January 22, 2021 |
6.0 |
-0.194 |
-11.80% |
Week 46 |
January 27, 2021 |
5.1 |
-1.000 |
-13.90% |
Week 47 |
February 3, 2021 |
6.5 |
1.400 |
-9.20% |
Week 48 |
February 10, 2021 |
5.9 |
-0.700 |
-12.00% |
Week 49 |
February 18, 2021 |
5.9 |
0.041 |
|
Week 50 |
February 24, 2021 |
4.6 |
-1.300 |
-13.30% |
Week 51 |
March 3, 2021 |
6.3 |
1.700 |
-12.80% |
Week 52 |
March 10, 2021 |
5.7 |
-0.600 |
|
Week 53 |
March 17, 2021 |
5.3 |
-0.332 |
13.90% |
Week 54 |
March 24, 2021 |
5.6 |
0.300 |
-9.50% |
Week 55 |
March 31, 2021 |
6.1 |
0.500 |
-9.40% |
Week 56 |
April 7, 2021 |
6.3 |
0.119 |
-5.00% |
Week 57 |
April 14, 2021 |
5.9 |
-0.411 |
7.00% |
Week 58 |
April 21, 2021 |
5.4 |
-0.448 |
5.00% |
Week 59 |
April 28, 2021 |
6.6 |
1.200 |
10.70% |
Week 60 |
May 5, 2021 |
5.5 |
-1.200 |
7.80% |
I'm looking at the trends;
ReplyDelete-USA production is flat over the past several weeks
-Import/export of crude and products is trending toward being an net importer
-Demand is increasing.
-Rig count is slowly increasing but still down about 50% compared to 18 months ago.
-Depletion rate of existing producing well continues.
If that is accurate and if that trend holds, Goldman Sachs prediction of $80-oil is a foregone conclusion.
DeleteIf that is accurate and if that trend holds, the US shale operators are demonstrating considerable discipline.
Depletion in existing oil wells is nothing new but shale oil is definitely different than conventional fields.
I'm thinking that the discipline is coming from the lack of banks or others willing to loan money in light of the many bankruptcies caused by demand drop due to COVID. Yea the Saudi Ariba tried to flood the oil markets to stop fracking. Nobody saw the COVID demand drop coming.
DeleteThat and the uncertainty of the DAPL.
Delete1,722,000 barrels per day of what refineries used this week was unaccounted for...
ReplyDeleteConsidering how precise the oil industry can be with everything else, I find it mind boggling to see numbers like these. One wonders how much "funny business" must be going on "off the books."
Deletesmaller unaccounted for amounts i can imagine possible scenarios...but what could have be understated by 1,722,000 barrels per day? net imports? storage draw? production? i have no idea...
DeleteI would have no idea, but 1.7 million bbls/day is more than the entire output of the Bakken right now.
Delete