Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report; Jet Fuel Delivered Doubles Year-Over-Year -- May 5, 2021

WTI; $66.48. After the EIA data was released, WTI, no change, at $66.43.

API: yesterday -- a 7.7 million bbl draw. Link here.

The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.7 million barrels for the week ended April 30, 2021. 
The data also reportedly showed gasoline stockpiles down by 5.3 million barrels, while distillate inventories declined by nearly 3.5 million barrels. 
Crude stocks at the Cushing, OK, storage hub, meanwhile, edged up by 548,000 barrels for the week. 
Inventory data from the Energy Information Administration will be released today (May 5,2021). 
On average, the EIA is expected to show crude inventories down by 3.9 million barrels, according to a survey of analysts conducted by S&P Global Platts. It also forecast supply declines of 500,000 barrels for gasoline and 1.6 million barrels for distillates.

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

  • US crude oil in storage: 485.1 million bbls.
  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a phenomenal, whopping, indescribable 8.0 million bbls
  • refiners are operating at 86.5% -- where we've been for quite some time
  • imports averaged 5.5 million bopd, a decrease of 1.2 million bopd from the previous week.
  • imports are averaging about 5.8 million bopd, a significant 7.8% more than the same four-week period last week
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by almost 3 million bbls; distillates are about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year;
  • total motor gasoline increased a bit but gasoline inventories are still about 2% below the five-year average
  • jet fuel product supplied was up 101% compared with four-week period last year

From social media, link here:

ooooof .... disappointing gasoline product supplied numbers; huge imports at 1.02 mbpd. Spreads, cracks falling apart on this report. By the way, crude exports way up at 4.12 million bpd; had been averaging about 2.5 million bpd.

Crude oil imports. I don't know if it means anything, but as a percentage basis, year-over-year, it appears that the US has been importing a larger amount of crude oil over the past few weeks compared to earlier this year. From week 41 to week 46, the last column, the four-week period, year-over-year, was generally negative, and often double digits. Recently, from week 57 on, the percentage has increased, including a double-digit jump last week.

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 41

December 23, 2020

5.6

0.140

-12.90%

Week 42

December 30, 2020

5.3

-0.238

-14.40%

Week 43

January 6, 2021

5.4

0.043

-18.10%

Week 44

January 13, 2021

6.2

0.900

14.90%

Week 45

January 22, 2021

6.0

-0.194

-11.80%

Week 46

January 27, 2021

5.1

-1.000

-13.90%

Week 47

February 3, 2021

6.5

1.400

-9.20%

Week 48

February 10, 2021

5.9

-0.700

-12.00%

Week 49

February 18, 2021

5.9

0.041


Week 50

February 24, 2021

4.6

-1.300

-13.30%

Week 51

March 3, 2021

6.3

1.700

-12.80%

Week 52

March 10, 2021

5.7

-0.600


Week 53

March 17, 2021

5.3

-0.332

13.90%

Week 54

March 24, 2021

5.6

0.300

-9.50%

Week 55

March 31, 2021

6.1

0.500

-9.40%

Week 56

April 7, 2021

6.3

0.119

-5.00%

Week 57

April 14, 2021

5.9

-0.411

7.00%

Week 58

April 21, 2021

5.4

-0.448

5.00%

Week 59

April 28, 2021

6.6

1.200

10.70%

Week 60

May 5, 2021

5.5

-1.200

7.80%

8 comments:

  1. I'm looking at the trends;
    -USA production is flat over the past several weeks
    -Import/export of crude and products is trending toward being an net importer
    -Demand is increasing.
    -Rig count is slowly increasing but still down about 50% compared to 18 months ago.
    -Depletion rate of existing producing well continues.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If that is accurate and if that trend holds, Goldman Sachs prediction of $80-oil is a foregone conclusion.

      If that is accurate and if that trend holds, the US shale operators are demonstrating considerable discipline.

      Depletion in existing oil wells is nothing new but shale oil is definitely different than conventional fields.

      Delete
    2. I'm thinking that the discipline is coming from the lack of banks or others willing to loan money in light of the many bankruptcies caused by demand drop due to COVID. Yea the Saudi Ariba tried to flood the oil markets to stop fracking. Nobody saw the COVID demand drop coming.

      Delete
    3. That and the uncertainty of the DAPL.

      Delete
  2. 1,722,000 barrels per day of what refineries used this week was unaccounted for...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Considering how precise the oil industry can be with everything else, I find it mind boggling to see numbers like these. One wonders how much "funny business" must be going on "off the books."

      Delete
    2. smaller unaccounted for amounts i can imagine possible scenarios...but what could have be understated by 1,722,000 barrels per day? net imports? storage draw? production? i have no idea...

      Delete
    3. I would have no idea, but 1.7 million bbls/day is more than the entire output of the Bakken right now.

      Delete