Updates
August 2, 2018: Wall Street Journal when Apple hits $1 trillion market cap.
Original Post
3:44 p.m. CDT: shares up over $5.00 / share.
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It's 3:30 p.m. -- do you know what Apple's earnings are?
Somebody knows something. Shares jump. Up $3.99 before CNBC announced.
- holy mackerel -- every number is incredible:
- EPS: $2.34 vs $2.18
- revenue beat: $53.27 billion vs $52.34 billion
- average selling price of iPhone incredible
- guidance, for next quarter: $60- $62 billion
- 38% gross margin guidance
- Cook: underlying demand is even greater
- iPhone X most popular version in urban China
- $724 average selling price -- $30 above Wall Street estimate -- huge
- Chinese growth, 19%
- global services growth: 31%
- cash hoard falls $23.5 to $243.7 billion
- iPhone shipments for the quarter down slightly; remember: Apple getting ready for huge new release of new iPhones -- including one to replace the iPhone X
- AAPL closed slightly up during regular hours, but essentially flat --
- AAPL is up slightly after hours, but essentially flat --
- because the movement on AAPL was so minimal during regular hours and now after hours, less than 30 minutes before earnings announcement, my hunch: AAPL is going to move $3 to $5/share one way or the other once the numbers are released (posted, 3:19 p.m. CDT, July 31, 2018); if history is any guide, AAPL will drop $3/share (or more) once earnings are released
- if shares drop today, AAPL shares will gradually recover over the next few weeks
- if shares jump today, AAPL shares will continue to surge through the end of the week
- shares surge 5%; shares have dropped about 25% this past 12 months
- active listeners (subscribers) greater than expected
- revenue beat: $384 million vs $373 million forecast
- EPS beat by one penny: a loss of 15 cents vs a forecast of a loss of 16 cents
- I don't believe Apple breaks out Apple Music data
- an increase in Pandora listeners is a good omen for all music platforms
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Apple -- Before Earnings Release
Some of this was previously posted.
Earnings forecast: $2.18. Range: $2.10 - $2.28/share.
The third quarter earnings for past years have been circled in the graphic below; easy to read.
But let's look at revenue (link here):
- average: $52.34 billion
- range: $49 - $53.49 billion
- $52.34 billion will be the best quarter ever except for first quarters which is always Apple's best quarter, with three exceptions:
- 4Q17: $52.6 billion
- 2Q17: $52.9 billion
- 2Q15: $58 billion -- iPhone 6 and IOS 8.0 released in September, 2014, perhaps the biggest update since the iPhone was first released
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