Race To Build Crude Oil Export Terminals Off Texas Coast -- July 31, 2018

BP: profit surges --

• hikes dividend for first time since 2014
• underlying replacement cost for 2Q18: almost $3 billion -- quadruple the figure year-over-year 
• BP brought on seven major projects in 2017, as well as three that have been brought online this year in Russia, Egypt and Azerbaijan and another three to go before the year's end

BP: from twitter --

BP's muscular trading arm posted a rare loss in the second quarter. They were reported to be on the wrong side of the Brent-WTI blowout in early June.

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• 34024, 906, NP Resources, Gracie State 142-100-21-16-2H, Tree Top, Three Forks, 35 stages; 4.4 million lbs, t2/18; cum 65K 5/18;
• 33366, SI/NC, WPX Energy, Hidatsa North 14-23HZ, Reunion Bay, no production data,
• 31519, 1,535, CLR, Lansing 9-25H,Banks, 54 stages; 8.9 million lbs, t3/18; cum 93K 5/18;

Active rigs:

$69.72↓	7/31/2018	07/31/2017	07/31/2016	07/31/2015	07/31/2014
Active Rigs	63	61	35	74	193

RBN Energy: contenders in the race to build crude oil export terminals off the Texas coast.

As Gulf Coast marine terminal owners consider ways to at least partially load Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) at their facilities, a handful of midstream companies also are planning offshore terminals in deep water that would allow the full loading of VLCCs via pipeline.

Projects under development by Oiltanking and others for sites along the Texas coast would appear to have at least two legs up on the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP. For one, they’d have more direct access to the Permian, Eagle Ford and other crudes flowing to coastal Texas. For another, the new terminals would be focused on crude exports — no double-duty for them. Today, we begin a review of the projects vying to be the first LOOP-like project in the deep waters off the Lone Star State.

U.S. crude exports hit the 3-MMb/d mark a few weeks back (the week ending June 22), and while they’ve since retreated slightly, there’s every reason to believe that export volumes will be ratcheting up in the months and years to come. They’ll almost have to, really.

The three production-forecast price scenarios that we assessed in our most recent update — crude prices flat at $70/bbl or $55/bbl to 2023, or (like the forward curve) ramping down to $55/bbl over the next five years — would result in crude production growth of between 2.0 MMb/d (under the flat-at-$55 scenario) and 5.0 MMb/d (under the flat-at-$70 scenario). That’s on top of the 11 MMb/d the U.S. is already producing, which is twice the 5.5 MMb/d rate back in 2010.

U.S. refineries already are operating at close to full capacity with a mix of domestic and imported barrels that fits their hardward (sic) configurations, cranking out increasing volumes of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for export, and while at least a few refinery expansion projects are being planned, they would only be capable of absorbing a small portion of the incremental crude production we’re likely to see.

So export the U.S. must.