Target: despite beating estimates, Target is getting slammed. Down 26% for the year, Target shares dropped a little over $5 this morning, after earnings came out (down 8.44%) and now trading at $55.04. The numbers were great; the guidance was awful: flat to maybe slightly improved. WMT in the same period has risen from $68 to $90, a gain of 32% over one year.
WTI: Yahoo!Finance top story -- market opens 150 points down, said to be due to slide in oil prices, exactly what I said two days ago. Talking heads say the slide in oil is due to a) declining Chinese demand; and b) continued "over" production in the states. I don't bu the "declining Chinese demand" story. We will see EIA's weekly report and US crude oil inventories for the past week later this morning.
I keep reading that oil supplies in the US are "tightening." I don't see it. Whoever is saying that must be "talking their book." I tend to follow the data. The price of WTI is going to have to drop below $50 for US shale production to decrease.
If you have not listened to the podcast at this post, I highly recommend it. By the way, for the record, I disagree with the interviewee's comments about "swing producers" and how quickly the Bakken can respond to price swings. It was interesting to hear that unconventional response to price is 9x the conventional oil response -- listen to the podcast to understand this. This is the quote from Platts via Twitter: "US drillers are now 9x more responsive to oil prices since adopting unconventional drilling. I understand that and agree with it. It's the "swing producer" stuff and the ability of the Bakken to respond to price changes that I disagree with. I think the phrase "excess capacity" is a misnomer these days, a carryover from a decade ago.
Before the weekly petroleum report: $55.08/bbl WTI; after the report, slightly below $55.
- US crude oil inventories: increased by 1.9 million bbls; now at 459 million bbls
- refinery operating at91% capacity; improving slightly
- gasoline production decreased last week, now at 9.9 million b/d
- distillate production increased last week, not at 5.2 million b/d
- gasoline build: 0.9 million bbls
- distillate drawdown: 0.8 million bbls
Re-balancing now estimated to take another 43 weeks, up from 42 weeks, and, of course, another week has gone by without making any new headway on re-balancing.
Week
|
Date
|
Drawdown
|
Storage
|
Weeks to RB
|
Week 0
|
Apr 26, 2017
|
529.0
|
180
|
|
Week 1
|
May 3, 2017
|
0.9
|
528.0
|
198
|
Week 2
|
May 10, 2017
|
6
|
522.0
|
50
|
Week 3
|
May 17, 2017
|
1.8
|
520.2
|
59
|
Week 4
|
May 24, 2017
|
4.4
|
515.8
|
51
|
Week 5
|
May 31, 2017
|
6.4
|
509.9
|
41
|
Week 6
|
June 7, 2017
|
-3.3
|
513.2
|
60
|
Week 7
|
June 14, 2017
|
1.7
|
511.5
|
57
|
Week 8
|
June 21, 2017
|
2.5
|
509.0
|
62
|
Week 9
|
June 28, 2017
|
-0.2
|
509.2
|
71
|
Week 10
|
July 6, 2017
|
6.3
|
502.9
|
58
|
Week 11
|
July 12, 2017
|
7.6
|
495.3
|
47
|
Week 12
|
July 19, 2017
|
4.7
|
490.6
|
43
|
Week 13
|
July 26, 2017
|
7.2
|
483.4
|
38
|
Week 14
|
August 2, 2017
|
1.5
|
481.9
|
52
|
Week 15
|
August 9, 2017
|
6.5
|
475.4
|
35
|
Week 16
|
August 16, 2017
|
8.9
|
466.5
|
30
|
Week 17
|
August 23, 2017
|
3.3
|
463.2
|
29
|
Week 18
|
August 30, 2017
|
5.4
|
457.8
|
27
|
Week 19
|
September 7, 2017
|
-4.6
|
462.4
|
32
|
Week 20
|
September 13, 2017
|
-5.9
|
468.2
|
39
|
Week 21
|
September 20, 2017
|
-4.6
|
472.8
|
46
|
Week 22
|
September 27, 2017
|
1.8
|
471.0
|
46
|
Week 23
|
October 4, 2017
|
6.0
|
465.0
|
41
|
Week 24
|
October 12, 2017
|
2.8
|
462.2
|
40
|
Week 25
|
October 18, 2017
|
5.7
|
456.5
|
37
|
Week 26
|
October 25, 2017
|
-0.9
|
457.3
|
39
|
Week 27
|
November 1, 2017
|
2.4
|
454.9
|
38
|
Week 28
|
November 8, 2017
|
-2.2
|
457.1
|
42
|
Week 29
|
November 15, 2017
|
1.9
|
459.0
|
43
|
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