We Should Know By The End Of July, 2015 -- May 31, 2015

Updates

June 18, 2015: WSJ front page article on relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia with regard to Iran.  

It isn’t just about Yemen. Saudi Arabia—like Israel—is also concerned by Tehran’s pending nuclear deal with the U.S. and five other world powers. Fearing that the agreement, and the accompanying lifting of economic sanctions, would embolden Iran to expand its regional sway, some Saudis even hope—not so secretly—that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would use his country’s air force to destroy Iran’s nuclear installations.

“Israel is an enemy because of its origin, but isn’t an enemy because of its actions—while Iran is an enemy because of its actions, not because of its origin,” said Abdullah al Shammari, a Riyadh academic who served as a senior Saudi diplomat.

“This means that Iran is more of a threat. If I were a Saudi decision maker, I would not hesitate for a second to coordinate with Israel against Iran’s nuclear program.”

While Israeli officials are equally eager and say that secret contacts have taken place, this doesn’t mean that a diplomatic breakthrough will happen soon.

Original Post

I think we'll know by the end of July which way the price of oil will be headed by the end of the year (well, duh). One can find talking heads on both ends of the continuum: oil could still fall to $40; oil will be at $80 by the end of the year.

Two huge data points yet to be sorted out: gasoline demand in the US once the driving season begins, and the ISIS offensive that will begin this summer in the Mideast.

We've already had indications that gasoline demand in the US will hit new records this summer.

The other data point will come out of the mideast. The stories are starting to come out fast and furious with regard to the summer, 2015, ISIS offensive.

First, we had that excellent Telegraph story just the other day.

Now, we have another London newspaper story, this one in The Guardian suggesting all is not well in the kingdom:

Reports from Dammam described a car bomb explosion at the entrance to the al-Anoud mosque, despite security measures put in place because of last Friday’s incident near Qatif, in which 21 people were killed and 120 injured in the worst attack in Saudi Arabia in a decade.

The latest attack was quickly claimed by Isis, which said the “blessed martyrdom operation” had been carried out by a “soldier of the caliphate” it named as Abu Jandal al-Jazrawi. General Mansour al-Turki, spokesman for the Saudi interior ministry, said the terrorist was dressed in women’s clothes.

Analysts have described “lone wolf” initiatives encouraged by Isis, though the speed of the claim of responsibility suggested planning and coordination.

Isis has been paying special attention to Saudi Arabia since a speech by its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, excoriating the royal family as the “head of the snake and stronghold of disease”.

And then perhaps the most bizarre story: Iran accusing Israel of assisting Saudi Arabia, or Iran accusing Saudi Arabia of requesting assistance from Israel to help fight terrorism in Yemen. International Business Times is reporting.