For years, there’s been lots of debate over “peak oil” — the notion that, at some point in the near future, the rate of global oil production will bump up against a hard ceiling. This is generally considered a gloomy prospect.
But another, related concept has started to bubble up in energy discussions lately. It’s the notion of peak oil demand.The article looks at two competing views:
- Citi think the world’s thirst for oil could peak in a few years at around 92 million barrels per day (the gray-blue scenario) — as long as vehicle efficiency for cars and trucks keeps improving by about 2.5 percent per year
- BP expects global oil demand to keep growing from 89 million barrels per day today to around 104 million barrels per day by 2030
The article gives passing mention to China's automobile demand.
The most interesting data point for me: no one seems to be predicting that demand for oil will actually drop below 92 million bopd.
Note the statistic in the linked article above:
- Citi think the world’s thirst for oil could peak in a few years at around 92 million barrels per day
Global consumption will increase by 1.1 million barrels a day, or 1.2 percent, to 92 million next year, the Paris-based adviser to energy-consuming nations said today in its monthly market report. The expansion is 100,000 barrels a day less than last month, when the estimate for 2014 was first introduced. Refinery operating rates will ease after a record surge in July, the IEA said.
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