Update
February 15, 2021: failure on a massive scale. Perhaps unprecedented.
Original Post
Note: yesterday's high was 64K.
It looks like we maxed out at 69K.
I believe the all-time high for ERCOT was 74K in August, 2019.
There's definitely a difference between global warming and global cooling.
I believe the all-time record was August 13 - 15, 2019: maxed at 74,666 MW --
ERCOT set a new maximum peak demand in August 2019 at 74,666 MW*, that is 4,747 MW more than the August 2018 demand of 69,919 MW. ... ERS was deployed on August 13 and August 15 during the EEA Level 1 events.
Last Date and Time: Feb 14, 2021 22:20
| Oper Day | Hour Ending | NORTH | SOUTH | WEST | HOUSTON | TOTAL |
| 02/14/2021 | 0100 | 21982.37 | 15958.37 | 5334.28 | 11623.70 | 54898.71 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0200 | 21923.13 | 15717.33 | 5300.74 | 11440.15 | 54381.35 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0300 | 22107.58 | 15612.13 | 5265.42 | 11340.07 | 54325.20 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0400 | 22493.40 | 15625.27 | 5239.99 | 11259.14 | 54617.81 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0500 | 22933.90 | 15815.21 | 5178.29 | 11278.34 | 55205.74 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0600 | 23508.41 | 16114.75 | 5212.81 | 11405.91 | 56241.88 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0700 | 24126.75 | 16519.24 | 5299.67 | 11649.01 | 57594.66 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0800 | 24779.76 | 16958.00 | 5357.40 | 11908.89 | 59004.06 |
| 02/14/2021 | 0900 | 25581.04 | 17543.17 | 5392.91 | 12269.86 | 60786.98 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1000 | 26431.90 | 18119.36 | 5400.45 | 12582.18 | 62533.89 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1100 | 26897.10 | 18533.09 | 5380.02 | 12865.15 | 63675.36 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1200 | 27187.53 | 18779.66 | 5331.89 | 13121.96 | 64421.05 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1300 | 27319.46 | 18881.52 | 5299.15 | 13085.13 | 64585.25 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1400 | 27377.27 | 18910.67 | 5245.93 | 13060.14 | 64594.01 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1500 | 27439.77 | 18990.87 | 5215.94 | 13091.69 | 64738.27 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1600 | 27657.07 | 19072.22 | 5182.80 | 13177.90 | 65089.99 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1700 | 28107.80 | 19408.93 | 5168.28 | 13289.07 | 65974.08 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1800 | 28818.62 | 19959.91 | 5207.07 | 13604.09 | 67589.69 |
| 02/14/2021 | 1900 | 29607.43 | 20455.31 | 5246.65 | 13840.29 | 69149.68 |
| 02/14/2021 | 2000 | 29579.78 | 20606.68 | 5221.65 | 13814.12 | 69222.23 |
| 02/14/2021 | 2100 | 29386.44 | 20612.54 | 5193.10 | 13687.38 | 68879.46 |
| 02/14/2021 | 2200 | 28981.55 | 20430.72 | 5128.47 | 13486.61 | 68027.35 |
Operating Day: yesterday, February 13,2021
Last Date and Time: Feb 14, 2021 15:20
| Oper Day | Hour Ending | NORTH | SOUTH | WEST | HOUSTON | TOTAL |
| 02/13/2021 | 0100 | 22790.09 | 15263.98 | 5689.92 | 12081.23 | 55825.22 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0200 | 22604.68 | 15045.61 | 5671.68 | 11821.07 | 55143.04 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0300 | 22526.31 | 15000.03 | 5661.93 | 11693.21 | 54881.47 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0400 | 22619.18 | 15072.23 | 5641.40 | 11683.52 | 55016.33 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0500 | 22905.89 | 15327.70 | 5661.87 | 11770.24 | 55665.70 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0600 | 23418.58 | 15766.30 | 5720.94 | 11985.60 | 56891.43 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0700 | 24063.82 | 16381.66 | 5819.20 | 12318.78 | 58583.46 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0800 | 24690.41 | 16876.54 | 5896.40 | 12577.47 | 60040.82 |
| 02/13/2021 | 0900 | 25451.08 | 17371.36 | 5966.38 | 12859.02 | 61647.83 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1000 | 26157.05 | 17827.37 | 6020.27 | 13169.36 | 63174.04 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1100 | 26455.63 | 18113.16 | 5880.79 | 13236.83 | 63686.42 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1200 | 26077.65 | 18144.96 | 5802.08 | 13145.99 | 63170.67 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1300 | 24987.43 | 17978.94 | 5732.88 | 13001.46 | 61700.72 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1400 | 23530.34 | 17771.00 | 5650.29 | 12781.90 | 59733.53 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1500 | 22279.27 | 17624.40 | 5599.99 | 12625.30 | 58128.96 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1600 | 21554.73 | 17452.68 | 5570.00 | 12450.71 | 57028.12 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1700 | 21655.87 | 17512.40 | 5590.12 | 12390.15 | 57148.53 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1800 | 22440.23 | 17719.92 | 5659.91 | 12519.36 | 58339.43 |
| 02/13/2021 | 1900 | 23452.06 | 18008.55 | 5751.47 | 12890.53 | 60102.62 |
| 02/13/2021 | 2000 | 23697.96 | 17953.77 | 5786.24 | 12903.98 | 60341.95 |
| 02/13/2021 | 2100 | 23551.84 | 17757.98 | 5698.30 | 12733.53 | 59741.66 |
| 02/13/2021 | 2200 | 23227.90 | 17392.89 | 5581.76 | 12576.49 | 58779.04 |
| 02/13/2021 | 2300 | 22681.08 | 16828.81 | 5461.32 | 12236.17 | 57207.38 |
| 02/13/2021 | 2400 | 22246.67 | 16352.29 | 5405.27 | 11898.15 | 55902.38 |
Been watching ERCOT data all day. (Yes, I need to get a life)
ReplyDeleteSeeing that ERCOT has been securing peak power increase. I'm guessing that they are making deals moving power from long distance providers for peak power. Peak power pricing of thousands of dollars per megawatt even if you have line losses of 50-90% obtaining power from 1000 miles away, transmission companies and generators will be making big bucks. Another factor is that NG is in short supply as compared to summertime peak loads.
Power transmission information from Wiki about power transmission;
Transmitting electricity at high voltage reduces the fraction of energy lost to resistance, which varies depending on the specific conductors, the current flowing, and the length of the transmission line. For example, a 100 mi (160 km) span at 765 kV carrying 1000 MW of power can have losses of 1.1% to 0.5%. A 345 kV line carrying the same load across the same distance has losses of 4.2%.[23] For a given amount of power, a higher voltage reduces the current and thus the resistive losses in the conductor. For example, raising the voltage by a factor of 10 reduces the current by a corresponding factor of 10 and therefore the {\displaystyle I^{2}R}{\displaystyle I^{2}R} losses by a factor of 100, provided the same sized conductors are used in both cases. Even if the conductor size (cross-sectional area) is decreased ten-fold to match the lower current, the {\displaystyle I^{2}R}{\displaystyle I^{2}R} losses are still reduced ten-fold. Long-distance transmission is typically done with overhead lines at voltages of 115 to 1,200 kV.
New Englund ISO has the same problem with NG shortages in the winter, NG demand is high, yet summertime peak loads are easily handled.
There was an article yesterday that said Texas would have trouble getting power from outside the state since "every" state was facing the same problem: Texas is not the only state with severe cold. But I bet you are correct: Texas is scrambling to get power wherever it can.
DeleteNot much else to do than watch ERCOT and paint dry. Everything not closed down by COVID is now closed down to snow/ice. Markets are closed for three day. Sports? No NFL. I don't watch NBA. Forgot about the PGA tournament today. NASCAR weather delay from 12:00 noon central time to 9:00 p.m. central time. Just started racing again. So, there's nothing to but watch ERCOT demand and watch paint dry.
DeleteHope your grandkids enjoy the event. They may never see this in Texas again in their lifetimes.
ReplyDeleteThey’re having a blast. You are so correct. We have no power so no blogging until we get power.
DeleteTexas is the only state that is unable to import power from other states in order to temporarily increase peak supply and thereby accommodate demand that would otherwise over load the in state
ReplyDeleteGeneration capacity. As the saying goes, this isn't a big , it's a feature. In other words Texas power grid ,by design, is an island. If demand is approaching overload, adding generation capacity isn't an option. The only options are to press the overload limit, a dangerous undertaking that could spiral out of control with catastrophic results, or to shed load (blackouts). Shedding load will protect the grid but at the cost of tremendous inconvenience to say the least. A complication was/is that so many users are defined as "critical" that what was intended to be rollling (short term)
blackouts spread across many users became long term with many not being required to be subject to the blackouts. I've long since given up expecting Texas to confront anything that , at its core, a problem that demands scientific rigor. Texas goes only so far then cuts corners. Virtually nothing is going to be done to address the issues presented. We are already hearing that this a "100 year" event, a one off etc etc. typical Texas two step (then fall on your face and start over again. Anyone moving to Texas will get exactly what they deserve.
I've learned a lot about energy, not only in Texas but across the US. I might talk about it in a stand-alone post. I've learned I've been very, very naive about this whole energy supply / demand thing. The aha! moment came tonight. If the spirit moves me I'll talk about it in a stand-alone post.
Delete