The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): ERCOT -- Current -- It Looks Like We Maxed Out At 8:00 P.M. And The Grid Held -- February 14, 2021

Sunday, February 14, 2021

ERCOT -- Current -- It Looks Like We Maxed Out At 8:00 P.M. And The Grid Held -- February 14, 2021

Update

February 15, 2021: failure on a massive scale. Perhaps unprecedented.

Original Post

Note: yesterday's high was 64K.

It looks like we maxed out at 69K.

I believe the all-time high for ERCOT was 74K in August, 2019.

There's definitely a difference between global warming and global cooling.

Link here.

I believe the all-time record was August 13 - 15, 2019: maxed at 74,666 MW --

ERCOT set a new maximum peak demand in August 2019 at 74,666 MW*, that is 4,747 MW more than the August 2018 demand of 69,919 MW. ... ERS was deployed on August 13 and August 15 during the EEA Level 1 events.

Last Date and Time: Feb 14, 2021 22:20

Oper Day	Hour Ending	NORTH	SOUTH	WEST	HOUSTON	TOTAL
02/14/2021	0100	21982.37	15958.37	5334.28	11623.70	54898.71
02/14/2021	0200	21923.13	15717.33	5300.74	11440.15	54381.35
02/14/2021	0300	22107.58	15612.13	5265.42	11340.07	54325.20
02/14/2021	0400	22493.40	15625.27	5239.99	11259.14	54617.81
02/14/2021	0500	22933.90	15815.21	5178.29	11278.34	55205.74
02/14/2021	0600	23508.41	16114.75	5212.81	11405.91	56241.88
02/14/2021	0700	24126.75	16519.24	5299.67	11649.01	57594.66
02/14/2021	0800	24779.76	16958.00	5357.40	11908.89	59004.06
02/14/2021	0900	25581.04	17543.17	5392.91	12269.86	60786.98
02/14/2021	1000	26431.90	18119.36	5400.45	12582.18	62533.89
02/14/2021	1100	26897.10	18533.09	5380.02	12865.15	63675.36
02/14/2021	1200	27187.53	18779.66	5331.89	13121.96	64421.05
02/14/2021	1300	27319.46	18881.52	5299.15	13085.13	64585.25
02/14/2021	1400	27377.27	18910.67	5245.93	13060.14	64594.01
02/14/2021	1500	27439.77	18990.87	5215.94	13091.69	64738.27
02/14/2021	1600	27657.07	19072.22	5182.80	13177.90	65089.99
02/14/2021	1700	28107.80	19408.93	5168.28	13289.07	65974.08
02/14/2021	1800	28818.62	19959.91	5207.07	13604.09	67589.69
02/14/2021	1900	29607.43	20455.31	5246.65	13840.29	69149.68
02/14/2021	2000	29579.78	20606.68	5221.65	13814.12	69222.23
02/14/2021	2100	29386.44	20612.54	5193.10	13687.38	68879.46
02/14/2021	2200	28981.55	20430.72	5128.47	13486.61	68027.35

Operating Day: yesterday, February 13,2021

Last Date and Time: Feb 14, 2021 15:20

Oper Day	Hour Ending	NORTH	SOUTH	WEST	HOUSTON	TOTAL
02/13/2021	0100	22790.09	15263.98	5689.92	12081.23	55825.22
02/13/2021	0200	22604.68	15045.61	5671.68	11821.07	55143.04
02/13/2021	0300	22526.31	15000.03	5661.93	11693.21	54881.47
02/13/2021	0400	22619.18	15072.23	5641.40	11683.52	55016.33
02/13/2021	0500	22905.89	15327.70	5661.87	11770.24	55665.70
02/13/2021	0600	23418.58	15766.30	5720.94	11985.60	56891.43
02/13/2021	0700	24063.82	16381.66	5819.20	12318.78	58583.46
02/13/2021	0800	24690.41	16876.54	5896.40	12577.47	60040.82
02/13/2021	0900	25451.08	17371.36	5966.38	12859.02	61647.83
02/13/2021	1000	26157.05	17827.37	6020.27	13169.36	63174.04
02/13/2021	1100	26455.63	18113.16	5880.79	13236.83	63686.42
02/13/2021	1200	26077.65	18144.96	5802.08	13145.99	63170.67
02/13/2021	1300	24987.43	17978.94	5732.88	13001.46	61700.72
02/13/2021	1400	23530.34	17771.00	5650.29	12781.90	59733.53
02/13/2021	1500	22279.27	17624.40	5599.99	12625.30	58128.96
02/13/2021	1600	21554.73	17452.68	5570.00	12450.71	57028.12
02/13/2021	1700	21655.87	17512.40	5590.12	12390.15	57148.53
02/13/2021	1800	22440.23	17719.92	5659.91	12519.36	58339.43
02/13/2021	1900	23452.06	18008.55	5751.47	12890.53	60102.62
02/13/2021	2000	23697.96	17953.77	5786.24	12903.98	60341.95
02/13/2021	2100	23551.84	17757.98	5698.30	12733.53	59741.66
02/13/2021	2200	23227.90	17392.89	5581.76	12576.49	58779.04
02/13/2021	2300	22681.08	16828.81	5461.32	12236.17	57207.38
02/13/2021	2400	22246.67	16352.29	5405.27	11898.15	55902.38

7 comments:

JohnFebruary 14, 2021 at 8:27 PM
Been watching ERCOT data all day. (Yes, I need to get a life)
Seeing that ERCOT has been securing peak power increase. I'm guessing that they are making deals moving power from long distance providers for peak power. Peak power pricing of thousands of dollars per megawatt even if you have line losses of 50-90% obtaining power from 1000 miles away, transmission companies and generators will be making big bucks. Another factor is that NG is in short supply as compared to summertime peak loads.

Power transmission information from Wiki about power transmission;
Transmitting electricity at high voltage reduces the fraction of energy lost to resistance, which varies depending on the specific conductors, the current flowing, and the length of the transmission line. For example, a 100 mi (160 km) span at 765 kV carrying 1000 MW of power can have losses of 1.1% to 0.5%. A 345 kV line carrying the same load across the same distance has losses of 4.2%.[23] For a given amount of power, a higher voltage reduces the current and thus the resistive losses in the conductor. For example, raising the voltage by a factor of 10 reduces the current by a corresponding factor of 10 and therefore the {\displaystyle I^{2}R}{\displaystyle I^{2}R} losses by a factor of 100, provided the same sized conductors are used in both cases. Even if the conductor size (cross-sectional area) is decreased ten-fold to match the lower current, the {\displaystyle I^{2}R}{\displaystyle I^{2}R} losses are still reduced ten-fold. Long-distance transmission is typically done with overhead lines at voltages of 115 to 1,200 kV.

New Englund ISO has the same problem with NG shortages in the winter, NG demand is high, yet summertime peak loads are easily handled.
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MikeFebruary 15, 2021 at 7:58 AM
Hope your grandkids enjoy the event. They may never see this in Texas again in their lifetimes.
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AnonymousFebruary 16, 2021 at 5:46 PM
Texas is the only state that is unable to import power from other states in order to temporarily increase peak supply and thereby accommodate demand that would otherwise over load the in state
Generation capacity. As the saying goes, this isn't a big , it's a feature. In other words Texas power grid ,by design, is an island. If demand is approaching overload, adding generation capacity isn't an option. The only options are to press the overload limit, a dangerous undertaking that could spiral out of control with catastrophic results, or to shed load (blackouts). Shedding load will protect the grid but at the cost of tremendous inconvenience to say the least. A complication was/is that so many users are defined as "critical" that what was intended to be rollling (short term)
blackouts spread across many users became long term with many not being required to be subject to the blackouts. I've long since given up expecting Texas to confront anything that , at its core, a problem that demands scientific rigor. Texas goes only so far then cuts corners. Virtually nothing is going to be done to address the issues presented. We are already hearing that this a "100 year" event, a one off etc etc. typical Texas two step (then fall on your face and start over again. Anyone moving to Texas will get exactly what they deserve.
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