Bakken Natural Gas Production Surges -- RBN Energy -- August 20, 2020

First things first: Xilinx to supply chips for new Subaru vehicle, Grovel spelled backwards. Are you kidding me? Huge, and XLNX up 0.6% in pre-market trading. Go XLNX! First good news for XLNX in a long time.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

An a-ha! I think one of the reasons investors/traders don't talk about their biggest investing/trading mistakes is because the "rest of the story" is never told. I can kick myself for not holding certain investments through the pandemic, but such discussions fail to take into account what I bought instead. Some of my new positions have been more than stellar, and I bet that's true for many folks who lament having sold off some of their previous holdings.

Geico Rock Award nominee: Steven Liesman notes that the pandemic is hitting mom-and-pop retail really, really bad. That was also the discussion in the swimming pool last night: mom-and-pop retail may not be able to hold on much longer, and with another lock down advocated by the Biden/Harris campaign will be the final nail in that coffin. Geico Rock Award nominees for 2020 are tracked here.

ZeroHedge was on a roll overnight:

• Saudi Arabia embraces Israel-UAE peace deal; amazing, all the things Trump accomplished in less than four years, despite impeachment efforts, constant media lies and fake news;
• bait-and-switch: from "flattening to the curve" to "not one single death" to "cases count, not deaths"
• toeing the line: Sweden refuses to mandate masks; Nordic neighbors re-impose restrictions;
• the vaccine, a fool's errand: Covid-19 pandemic is rolling over; number of US hospitalizations declining at rate of 1% per day; but having said that, Bill Gate is going to really, really, really get rich on this; but that's fine;

Chicago: apparently pandemic hasn't affected government employees yet; but without bailout, mayor threatens furloughs and layoffs;

Biggest non-story of the week: rolling blackouts in southern California. Didn't amount to a hill of beans in the big scheme of things, and entirely preventable. 

Didn't see this coming: world's largest offshore rig owner by fleet size, Valaris Plc, files for bankruptcy. Seeks to offload $7 billion in debt.

OPEC basket, link here: $45.19.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$42.50	8/20/2020	08/20/2019	08/20/2018	08/20/2017	08/20/2016
Active Rigs	12	63	58	53	32

Three wells coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, August 20, 2020: 59 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 576 for the year:

• 37077, drl/NC, BR, Cleofill, 1E, Croff, no production data,
  
• 36541, drl/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23A, Capa, no production data,
  
• 35872, AL/NC, Whiting, Fladeland 13-10TFH, Sanish, t--; cum 49K 6/20;
  

The Fladeland wells are tracked here.

RBN Energy: Bakken gas production rebounds, but will it last?

Archived.

Bakken associated gas production volume, after falling to its lowest levels in three years in early May and remaining depressed through June, has surged by 500 MMcf/d, or about 45%, in the past month and a half to 1.7 Bcf/d. 

However, the gains have occurred in the absence of a meaningful change in rig counts or well completion activity, which remains sluggish. 

Similar to the Permian, the Bakken production recovery has been almost entirely driven by existing wells returning to service after being shut in earlier this year in response to the oil price collapse. With little in the way of new drilling and completion activity, how long will it be before natural declines of existing wells begin to take a toll on Bakken output? Today, we examine prospects for continued strength in Bakken gas production volumes.

I think the bigger story, here, is profitability for the oil companies. Read that again:

Natural gas production surged 45% in the past month.   

However, the gains have occurred in the absence of a meaningful change in rig counts or well completion activity, which remains sluggish. 

Huge story. Rigs don't matter. Now, even frack spreads didn't matter. Wow. 

The other big story line: the Bakken is not a natural gas play. 

New record low for well completions and wells drilled in the Permian and the Bakken, Focus on Fracking.